Wizard
136th Running of the KY Derby
Churchill Downs Race 11 - 1 1/4m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $2,000,000. Post Time: ET
Race Synopsis
The Kentucky Derby almost always features a fast early pace anyways, but this year could be even quicker and more contested than normal. Super Saver, Line Of David, American Lion, Conveyance, and Sidney’s Candy all like the lead, and even if a couple of them try to rate a bit, then there are still 3 speed horses up front that will be ensuring a hot and contested pace. Some stalkers in this race will have a legitimate shot at the win if they can relax while not getting too close to a hot pace, but it is the closers who figure to have the advantage given the expected swift fractions. With wet weather expected on Friday and into Saturday, those who have displayed an affinity for an ‘off’ track may also have an advantage.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 LOOKIN AT LUCKY 3/1
2 ICE BOX 10/1
3 NOBLE'S PROMISE 12/1
4 SUPER SAVER 15/1
5 LINE OF DAVID 30/1
6 STATELY VICTOR 30/1
7 AMERICAN LION 30/1
8 DEAN'S KITTEN 50/1
9 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME 50/1
10 PADDY O'PRADO 20/1
11 DEVIL MAY CARE 10/1
12 CONVEYANCE 12/1
13 JACKSON BEND 15/1
14 MISSION IMPAZIBLE 20/1
15 DISCREETLY MINE 30/1
16 AWESOME ACT 10/1
17 DUBLIN 12/1
18 BACKTALK 50/1
19 HOMEBOYKRIS 50/1
20 SIDNEY'S CANDY 5/1
First Selection: (2) ICE BOX (Zito Nicholas P/Lezcano Jose)
The one thing you know about Ice Box is that he can win over a distance of ground. All 3 of his starts as a 3 year old have been at 1-1/8 miles. He was all out to prevail over four rivals in his 3 year old debut at Gulfstream returning from nearly a 3 month layoff. In his second start of 2010, Ice Box ran deceptively well when fifth to Eskendereya in a very fast renewal of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth stakes. Although beaten by 12 lengths, Ice Box was very slow away from the gate and then proceeded to race wide all the way after breaking from the difficult outermost post. What went largely unnoticed in that race is that he made a bold middle move while hung out about 4 or 5 wide on the far turn, losing lots of ground. The move was also premature, as Ice Box flattened out in the final furlong. These factors pointed out a “better than it looks” performance.
I must admit that even off the trip I saw that day, I did not think Ice Box was going to win the Florida Derby. When he rallied from last of eleven to win by a nose over Pleasant Prince, I knew I made a mistake in underestimating his chances, especially since he was a huge price (20-1) and trained by Nick Zito who has made a name for himself upsetting Grade 1 races with big price horses. Ice Box did benefit from a strong pace, the tiring speed in front of him, and from having two good races over the track. However, his final furlong in :12-3/5 was quite good, and he showed lots of heart in out-gaming two rivals in the final 100 yards. Had the race been longer, I believe that his margin of victory would have increased gradually, as he was showing no signs of slowing down. It was a fairly weak Florida Derby field, but then again, this crop as a whole is on the weak side, and few ‘prep’ races have come up strong.
Ice Box has shown some versatility in his 7-race career, but does seem to have found his niche as a late runner. Although 2 of his 3 wins have come stalking the leaders, I don’t expect these tactics to be employed in the Derby. Ice Box will be taken far off the pace, saving ground from his inside post, and make one late run, which worked to perfection in the Florida Derby. This could very well be the winning formula, as there is a lot of early speed in the race, and the pace is almost always fast and furious anyways in the 20-horse Derby field. With the scratch of Eskendereya, I don’t think that many other horses will be finishing as fast as Ice Box can, and if there’s any question about his breeding for 1-1/4 miles, then here is some evidence in his favor. His dam was a G2 winner going 1-1/2 miles on turf, and she also won on dirt, and the second dam is a half-sister to 1995 Kentucky Derby winner Spend A Buck. At expected big odds off a morning line of 10-1, I think Ice Box has a very legitimate chance to upset this big Derby field.
Second Selection: (1) LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Baffert Bob/Gomez G K)
If not for a head defeat after a tough trip in last years BC Juvenile, and then major trouble on the turn in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Lookin At Lucky would be a perfect 8 for 8. He would probably have been second choice to Eskendereya, but now is expected to be the favorite.
Lookin At Lucky, last year’s Juvenile Champion Male, is as tough as nails. A horse can look him in the eyes in the stretch and he snatches the victory from the jaws of defeat. If you put a line through his third place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, in his 6 wins, Lookin At Lucky’s margin of victory is a total of 5 lengths plus a head. That indicates one thing. He does just enough to get the job done. It is interesting to note, that despite a stellar 2 year old campaign, trainer Bob Baffert added blinkers when he made his 3 year old debut in the Grade 2 Rebel. I presume it was to get him to focus more late in the race, but whatever the reason was, there is no indication that they helped or hindered. That’s just the type of horse Lookin At Lucky is-just put him on the racetrack and he will give you his all, and that almost always is just enough to prevail.
With all these attributes, there’s certainly a lot to like about his chances to win the Kentucky Derby. It would be folly for me to say he would surprise me if he were to take down top prize, but I do have a few concerns. As far as pedigree goes, Lookin At Lucky does not really have ideal breeding for the taxing 1-1/4 mile distance. His sire, Smart Strike, who was a win machine, never won beyond 1-1/16 miles, but he has produced several long winded horses such as the multiple Grade 1 winner Curlin and champion turf horse English Channel, who both won at 1-1/4 miles and beyond. Lookin At Lucky’s dam side is more slanted towards success in sprints and up to 1-1/8 miles. After that, he will need to rely on his class to get him home. His mother was a sprinter but did produce Kensei, who won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga going 9 furlongs last year. If you go further back on the dam side, it’s the same story.
The other concern is that Lucky will have to break from post 1, which is very tough in the Derby, with 19 rivals breaking outside of him. Inside posts are not bad for horses that take back off the pace and make one late run, or even for a speedball who would be gunning for the lead, but a tactical horse like Lookin At Lucky is apt to get buried down inside somewhere in the middle of the field, having to deal with traffic the entire time. The potential will be there for him getting blocked when the speed starts to tire, and all in all there are a lot more potential headaches when breaking from post 1 as opposed to breaking more in the middle of the field.
Bob Baffert has won the Derby three times, and missed a fourth by a nose, so he knows how to get a horse to peak for this race, and I believe that Lookin At Lucky is set to peak. This is his third start off the 3-month layoff, often a horse’s best performance, and since shipping to Churchill Downs he’s been training brilliantly, including a remarkable work this week. He has the services of 2-time Eclipse Award winning jockey Garrett Gomez, and there are fewer anywhere that can remain as cool as he can under the pressure of a 20-horse field in the most important race of the year.
Third Selection: (20) SIDNEY'S CANDY (Sadler John W/Talamo Joseph)
Jockey Joe Talamo, who has ridden Sidney’s Candy in all 6 starts, was scheduled to ride the favorite in last year’s Kentucky Derby, I Want Revenge, who unfortunately was a late scratch the morning of the race. Talamo might get redemption a year later aboard this talented colt, who is a major player.
As a 2 year old, Sidney’s Candy broke his maiden in his second start at Del Mar. The pace he chased and the final time were one of the fastest by a juvenile running 5.5 furlongs in the country. When you factor in that the race was run over a synthetic surface, you have to think that he might have run faster over a conventional dirt course. It has been found that speed figures earned on track surfaces like Pro Ride, Polytrack and Tapeta, earn slower numbers than when these horses switch to dirt. If that’s the case, then Sidney’s Candy may have run the quickest time of them all.
Sidney’s Candy was given 4 months off after the big win, resurfacing in an allowance race at Santa Anita. He hopped at the start, then rushed up to chase a fast pace before tiring. His race was a bit disappointing, beaten 7 lengths as the 3-5 favorite. Trainer John Sadler then gave him 47 days off to prepare for a start in the Grade 2 San Vincente at Santa Anita. I found it interesting that Sadler would step him up into a tough stakes race off his defeat in allowance company. Sadler obviously knew that something went amiss that day. He had Sidney’s Candy razor sharp for his stakes engagement and the result was an authoritative win, once again in fast time. 26 days later, Sidney’s Candy was victorious in the Grade 2 San Felipe. He answered the question that day as to whether or not he could handle 2 turns against the toughest field he had ever faced.
The true test to see if Sidney’s Candy was a major Kentucky Derby contender would come in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, where he would face last year’s 2 year old champion Lookin At Lucky. In his most impressive victory to date, Sidney’s Candy proved he was one of the best 3 year olds in the country with a resounding 4-1/2 length victory at the 1-1/8 miles distance.
There has been much written that Sidney’s Candy is a “bet against” in the Kentucky Derby because of the perfect set ups he has had in his last 2 starts going a distance of ground. In both races he was able to get clear leads while setting slow paces. Pundit’s claim that when faced with much faster fractions in the Derby, he will be unable to carry his speed 1-1/4 miles. Many expect him to fade in the final furlong. I beg to differ. Even though Sidney’s Candy went wire to wire all 3 starts this year, who is to say he cannot stalk the leaders and then pounce on the far turn and dig in gamely through the long stretch at Churchill. He rated successfully in his first 2 starts, even though they were sprints. The Wizard is not quick to dismiss his chances, particularly since his top-class trainer, John Sadler, has stated definitively that he believes Candy can stalk successfully in this race. It’s hard to say what would have happened if Lookin For Lucky did not check sharply on the turn, drop back, and re-rally for third, in the Santa Anita Derby, but it is my contention that Sidney’s Candy would have won anyway, even though the margin would have probably been less than his 4-1/2 length victory. Although I do think Sidney’s Candy will run a big race in the Derby, my enthusiasm is tempered by his draw way out in post 20. Unless Joe Talamo can pull some magic out of his jockey’s cap, then Candy is almost destined for a wide trip, and losing a lot of ground on the turns in the Derby is not usually a formula for success.
Trainer John Sadler is one of the finest conditioners in the U.S. He does excellent work with horses of every class level, and has been winning training titles in Southern California. Sadler is also tremendous developing young horses. A case in point is this colt. Sidney’s Candy has a powerful, long stride, which is conducive to being successful at longer distances. Sidney’s Candy’s sire Candy Ride won all 6 starts career starts, and he broke the track record at 1-1/4 miles in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Candy Ride was as versatile and classy a runner as they come. He handled grass, dirt, and any kind of distance. The second dam Exchange was a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner, winning at distances from 6-1/2 furlongs to 1-1/2 miles. She handled any type of surface. Based on all of these important factors, Sidney’s Candy must be considered a major player in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Fourth Selection: (4) SUPER SAVER (Pletcher Todd A/Borel C H)
With the defections of Eskendereya, Rule, and Interactif, Super Saver may now be the best hope from Todd Pletcher’s army of runners that was initially entered in the Derby. In his debut he was a well-beaten second when sprinting over a wet track, beaten by another Pletcher Derby entrant, Discreetly Mine. Super Saver then broke his maiden impressively in his second start. He enjoyed the stretch to a mile in the slop. Off that victory, Pletcher saw enough potential in Super Saver to wheel him back 1 month later in the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont at the same distance. This was his first start on a dry track, and despite a fourth place finish, Super Saver ran very well. He set a strong pace from the start, repulsing several challenges, before giving ground grudgingly in the late stages. It is interesting to note that both the winner, Homeboykris and second place finisher, Discreetly Mine, are also in the Derby field.
Super Saver’s coming out party came 49 days later in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. This would be his first start around two turns and beyond a mile. Super Saver made full use of his good early speed, clearing early from his advantageous inside post, and easily wired the field by 5 lengths.
Todd Pletcher gave him the winter off to develop. He resurfaced 3-1/2 months later in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. Super Saver jumped right out to a 2 length lead, but entering the backstretch, he faced intense pressure. He dug in tenaciously while battling right to the wire, but had to settle for third, beaten a half-length. He had done all the dirty work for the winner Odysseus and second place finisher Schoolyard Dreams. It must be noted that both of those horses came out of the race to be well beaten in their subsequent start. Super Saver had passed a very important test, proving he was on his way to being a legitimate Derby contender if he could repeat that strong effort 4 weeks later in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Super Saver did pass that test while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. For only the second time in his career, Super Saver did not get the lead. He chased a fast pace in second, moved to challenge the lead at the top of the stretch, but was out-gamed late by Line Of David, losing by a neck while racing between the winner and Dublin to his outside for most of the stretch. The big question with Super Saver is how he will respond to those two very hard races since returning from his layoff. I feel that the two races can only benefit him. He had every chance to go by Line Of David last time out, but just couldn’t muster up the stamina to do so second start back. However, third start back he should be primed to peak. I prefer a horse that has proven he can look another horse in the eye, and fight on right to the wire. It’s not only about winning or losing. It’s all about heart and tenacity, and Super Saver has those important qualities. Both of his wins have been on the front end, but Super Saver showed in the Arkansas Derby that he could stalk and pounce. I have no doubt that 1-1/4 miles is well within his scope. His sire, Maria’s Mon, also sired 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos and the mare Wait A While, a multiple G1 turf winner going long who, like Super Saver, is out of an A.P. Indy mare. Super Saver’s dam Supercharger is related to many of the great horses owned and bred by the regal Phipps stable. I don’t feel that Super Saver will win the Kentucky Derby, but he is a threat to make his presence felt at the wire.
Fifth Selection: (14) MISSION IMPAZIBLE (Pletcher Todd A/Maragh Rajiv)
Mission Impazible is among several Todd Pletcher trainees who will enter the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby. He broke his maiden in his debut going 4-1/2 furlongs at Keeneland last spring over a synthetic surface. Mission Impazible stepped up into Grade 3 company with a good third on Oaks day at Churchill Downs. He suffered an injury after that race, and was put on the shelf, resurfacing on January 9 in the slop at Gulfstrream. Mission was beaten a head after dueling from the start. In 3 starts he had yet to try 2 turns, but he would get his chance on February 20 going a mile in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn. Mission ran deceptively well, chasing a strong pace while racing wide throughout from post 10. He ended up finishing fourth, but did not lose much ground at any point in the race and actually was coming on again in the final stages of the race.
The verdict was still out whether or not Mission Impazible could win over a distance of ground, but he dispelled any doubts when he upset the field at 7-1 in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 27 while traveling 1-1/8 miles for the first time. He sat a perfect trip from an inside post, and like in the Southwest, he made two moves, but his final rally got him the money.
I felt that the Louisiana Derby was a relatively weak group. Mission Impazible beat little compared to what he will face Saturday. However, he does continue to improve, and his final furlong in about :12-2/5 in the Louisiana Derby was actually quite good. In the Kentucky Derby he figures to rate behind the first flight of horses and make a move on the far turn. I don’t have a lot of confidence that he’ll sustain his rally in the stretch while meeting a much tougher group of horses, but on the outside chance that he does, he could get a minor award at a price.
The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(11) DEVIL MAY CARE (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
As if he didn’t have enough male contenders for the Derby, Todd Pletcher will now enter this filly, who was probably going to run in the Kentucky Oaks until the recent defections from the Derby of the Pletcher trio of Eskendereya, Rule, and Interactif. She won her first two career starts, including the G1 Frizette, but then had a bad trip while also seemingly not caring for the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita in the BC Juvenile Fillies to conclude her 2yo campaign.
When she returned from a 3-1/2 month layoff to begin her 3yo season, Devil May Care threw a fit in the gate and then put forth a very disappointing race on Feb 20, fading badly after making a middle-move. However, Pletcher got her back on track for the G2 Bonnie Miss on March 20. That was her first time racing at 1-1/8 mils, and she won going away in swift time while leaving her field strung out behind, a sign of a quality victory.
Although she won the Bonnie Miss by a widening margin, Devil May Care’s final furlong of :13-3/5 was actually quite slow, casting some doubt on her ability to get 1-1/4 miles in top company, especially against males. She does appear primed for a peak effort third start back, but before we can include this filly among those that had success to any degree in the Derby or in any of the Triple Crown races, she has an awful lot to prove. If she can work out her usual good stalking trip, then maybe she can hang around for a minor award, but in a 20-horse field of males that’s a big ‘if’.
(3) NOBLE'S PROMISE (Mcpeek Kenneth G/Martinez W)
Although he’s won just one graded stakes race, the G1 Breeders Futurity last October, this colt still ranks second only to Lookin At Lucky in graded stakes earnings. That’s because he’s been very consistent from the start, finishing second and third in two other G1 races and also missing by just a head in the G2 Rebel. He really ran a big race in that initial start on a ‘real dirt’ track and led for most of the stretch before getting worn down in the final strides by Lookin At Lucky. Off that super performance he was favored in the G1 Arkansas Derby on April 10, but he came up with the first dull effort of his 8-race career, checking in 5th of 9. It’s hard to say just how much a bumping incident at the break hurt his chances, but he did find himself much farther off the pace than usual, and that may have affected him mentally.
Can Noble’s Promise bounce back here? Most certainly, and his best-of-30 5F drill over the track on April 20 was impressive. He also has a tremendous pedigree for a wet track, which is looking more and more like it may be a factor on Saturday. However, the concern now becomes this 1-1/4 mile distance, because Noble’s Promise has a pedigree that’s really more oriented toward speed than stamina. The distance, in my mind, is the biggest question mark for Promise in this race, and is why I don’t have him ranked higher.
(16) AWESOME ACT (Noseda Jeremy/Leparoux Julien R)
Awesome Act began his career in England at Newmarket, where he strung two second place finishes together at 7 furlongs on the grass. In both races he was very rank early, which probably cost him a closer finish. Trainer Jeremy Noseda shipped him to Kempton for his third start, which was run over a synthetic track. Awesome Act was no threat, finishing a well beaten third in a 5 horse field. That was the last time he would try that surface. Noseda put him right back on the turf 35 days later at Goodwood, where he finally broke his maiden despite once again fighting the jockey soon after the start.
Awesome Act would face his stiffest test in the Group 1 Dewhurst at Newmarket on October 17. He missed the break, and then was bumped. He never settled, finishing a well beaten ninth. Analyzing his 5 races, I could not understand why Awesome Act would be shipped to the US for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita going a mile. He ran much better than expected at 31-1 in that race to be a fast-closing fourth. Awesome Act was racing on Lasix for the first time, which no doubt helped.
Off that one race, Awesome Act had proven to have some quality. This was confirmed 4 months later, when he shipped to Aqueduct to run in the Grade 3 Gotham. Despite traffic on the far turn, he bolted to the lead entering the stretch, and held on gamely to the wire. On closer inspection, I felt his race was not as good as it looked visually. When Awesome Act surged to the front, the rider appeared to be making a premature run, but that may have been a result of Awesome Act wanting to take off when he did, rather than the rider calling upon him to make the move, as if racing a bit rank. He was running down a foe of questionable quality in Yawanna Twist, a New York bred, who had 2 career starts, and had never been beyond 6 furlongs.
Awesome Act would have his final Derby Prep in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He would face a very tough rival in the expected Derby favorite Eskenderya. After stumbling at the break, and being rank once again on the turn, Awesome Act flattened out from the 3/16 pole, finishing a well-beaten third. You could say his ability to rally was hurt by a slow pace, but nevertheless, I felt he should have out-finished Jackson Bend to get second. It was later revealed that he had lost a shoe during the race, and that may have been a factor in his less than stellar finish.
In the Kentucky Derby, Awesome Act will face 19 other horses. He has proven that he has trouble relaxing early in a race, which will zap his energy when the real running begins at the top of the stretch. As a 2 year old, Awesome Act never raced beyond 7 furlongs in his first 5 starts. He appeared to get leg weary in deep stretch in the Gotham at 1-1/16 miles in his first dirt outing. In the Wood, Awesome Act showed no punch late stretching out a 1/16 of a mile further. Between his bad behavior, on a day where 150,000 + fans will converge on Churchill Downs, and his possible distance limitations, I cannot see him winning this race. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Awesome Act to hit the board, but this is a horse I have more negatives on than positives.
(7) AMERICAN LION (Harty Eoin/Flores D R)
American Lion raced on synthetic surfaces in his first 5 starts and was an impressive front running winner in breaking his maiden in his second start going 7F at Keeneland. He then shipped to Hollywood for the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue and scored a game half length victory for his second win at 7 furlongs. He was given nearly 3 months off, resurfacing in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis. Despite finishing third, I felt it was his best race to date. American Lion battled through quick fractions and gave ground grudgingly in the late stages in his first two-turn start. One month later, American Lion would face his sternest test in the Grade 2 San Felipe. For the first time he would be meeting the sharp and improving Sidney’s Candy. Trainer Eoin Harty elected to add blinkers for the first time in that race, but American Lion did not respond well to the hood. Right from the start he was rank and jockey Leparoux could not get him to relax. He chased Sidney’s Candy, but had no answer when asked to cut into that ones margin at the top of the stretch.
Blinkers were removed for his final Derby prep. Instead of staying in California for the Santa Anita Derby, Harty decided to ship American Lion to Hawthorne in Chicago to test him on the dirt for the first time in his career. He drew post one and on paper looked to be the controlling speed in an otherwise paceless field. New rider David Flores put American Lion on the lead as soon as the gate opened and set slow fractions. He faced a stiff challenge on the far turn, but had plenty left to repulse the bid, winning by 2-3/4 expanding lengths while clearly benefitting from the slow pace.
American Lion enters the Derby with a few positives in his corner. In 6 starts, he won at 3 different racetracks. He has won on the lead and stalking. American Lion has won half his starts and is bred well on both sides to handle the Derby distance. What I don’t like about him is that he will never get away with slow fractions if he even gets the lead. If American Lion is up close to the lead, he will be chasing quicker fractions than he is accustomed to attending. While he is eligible to improve further in his second start on dirt, I have not yet seen anything from Lion that leads me to believe that he’s anything more than a G3 or maybe G2 caliber horse.
(13) JACKSON BEND (Zito Nicholas P/Smith M E)
Jackson Bend is the poster child for the word consistency. There isn’t a horse in the Derby field that has started more than him, 9 times, with 5 wins and 4 seconds. Only once has he raced outside of Florida, and that was in the G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his final prep. He was no match in the stretch for Eskendereya, but he battled gamely right to the wire to hold off Awesome Act for second. That rival is expected to be a much shorter price than Jackson Bend in the Derby.
He showed quality and grit in his first 5 starts, which were all in sprints, primarily against Florida breds. Former trainer Stanley Gold tried him at 2 turns for the first time in a restricted Florida Stallion stake worth $400,000 on October 17, and he did not disappoint with a decisive win in very fast time. Following that race, Jackson Bend was privately purchased by trainer nick Zito for his main client Robert Lapenta. I felt it was a great buy, because you always know he will give you a 100 % every time, and in the process pad his earnings. Jackson Bends 3 year old campaign has continued where he left off last year. He has not won in 3 starts, but as is his custom, he has refused to succumb to intense pressure late, while holding on to second in all three outings. Unfortunately, he ran into Eskendereya in his last 2 starts and was no match. Neither was anyone else.
You can never underestimate Nick Zito when he has a long-priced horse in a marquee race. When you combine this fact with the consummate professional racehorse, you cannot easily dismiss Jackson Bend’s chances. I don’t think that he’s a win factor, since his pedigree speaks out loud and clear that 1-1/4 miles is further than what he wants. As a matter of fact, I feel he is at his best going a mile or shorter. But you cannot tell this to Jackson Bend, because he couldn’t care less about pedigree. He will run his typical A + race, and that could be good enough to get a piece of the pie.
(5) LINE OF DAVID (Sadler John W/Bejarano R)
These days it would be folly to totally dismiss anything that trainer John Sadler sends to post, especially a colt who just won a Grade 1 race. Sadler has been setting the standard in Southern California for the last year and a half, and has done a remarkable job bringing this colt along quickly from a maiden to a G1 winner in less than 2 months. The difference seems to have been the addition of blinkers, as Line Of David has reeled off three straight victories since adding the hood. However, all three have been gate-to-wire, which poses a problem for him when you figure that the pace in this 20-horse field figures to be fast and contested. He did hold on very gamely in the Arkansas Derby to fend off stretch bids from Super Saver and Dublin after setting a pace that was actually quite fast. However, he was free and clear on that lead, and that’s a different situation for a horse compared to when he’s fighting for the lead from the start. This colt may prove to be underrated at this point, but I still can’t envision him contesting the lead and lasting for the duration of this race. If he somehow gets another loose lead, then maybe he can hold on unexpectedly, but I don’t foresee that happening.
(17) DUBLIN (Lukas D Wayne/Thompson T J)
I feel I have a good read on Dublin, and that is that I don’t like him much in the Derby. He has proven to be most effective as a closing sprinter. Dublin has run well in 3 starts this year, but when he has had every opportunity to win any or all 3 of those races, Dublin has hung like a chandelier. His claim to fame was an impressive win in last year’s Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga at 7 furlongs. Dublin got a perfect set up, with a fast pace to close into, and a clean outside trip. He bombed in his final start at 2 in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill and then was given time off in preparation for his 3 year old campaign.
Dublin resurfaced in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn nearly 4 months later. He raced sluggishly early. He found his best stride in mid-stretch, and finished up well to run second, beaten less than a length by Conveyance, who was undefeated at the time. Trainer Wayne Lukas decided to keep Dublin at Oaklawn to prepare him for the Grade 2 Rebel. He was heavily bet at 7-5 into the teeth of last years 2 year old champion Lookin For Lucky, who shipped in from California for the race. New rider Corey Nakatani moved a bit too soon, but Dublin did have every chance to sustain his rally further than he did. He ran out of gas in the final 1/8 of a mile. With two races at Oaklawn, Lukas entered him in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Once again, Dublin was in perfect position to get the money through the length of the stretch, but showed no heart to punch it in very late when it counted.
Dublin is your typical sucker horse that has great potential, but not enough heart. He has never won around 2 turns, and has had every chance to do so. Even though his sire Afleet Alex won The Derby and Preakness, Dublin’s mother, Classy Mirage, was a top class sprinter with speed, and her pedigree is geared more for speed and shorter distances. What is going to happen to Dublin at 1-1/4 miles when he is hanging at shorter distances? Even when he gets the perfect pace set up, it does not help. Dublin is a big, long striding horse that needs an outside trip and clear sailing. He is unlikely to get what he wants without losing too much ground. He is not agile and has just one late move. If Dublin is confronted with traffic at any point in the race, he will find it difficult to recover. I would not be shocked if he hit the board, mostly due to my respect for Lukas, who has won four Derbys, rather than the horse himself. But the most I will be playing him is underneath when I press the ALL button.
(6) STATELY VICTOR (Maker Michael J/Garcia A)
Lit up the board at 40-1 in the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland when he rallied from dead last through stretch to blow by the field and win by 4-1/4 lengths. Off his prior 7 starts, Stately Victor never a ran a race which would entice you to run to the window and bet him that day. He had only one win to that point, and that was his maiden victory in his second start on grass at Saratoga. I remember selecting him that day off his solid turf and distance pedigree. Since that win back in September, Stately Victor had not hit the board until the Blue Grass.
The million dollar question is how did Stately Victor win the race and earn enough money to be in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby? The Wizard has a possible explanation. As a handicapper, how do you make an educated decision on what horses can run well on dirt and synthetic? What about grass horses switching to Polytrack , Pro-Ride or Tapeta? Can these horses improve switching to these surfaces, or not? These questions often have no definitive answers. Many people have said that horses that run well on grass can run well on synthetic. Some mention that there are horses that have the right pedigree for it. When I research the results of these races, I can see some correlation, but not enough evidence to confirm this. Stately Victor illustrates this confusion. Prior to his win in the Blue Grass, he had run on grass 3 times, synthetic once, and dirt 3 times. Stately Victor did have an impressive grass victory in his turf debut, but with the exception of a second place finish in an off the grass race in his debut, his other 2 dirt starts were awful. As a matter of fact, he was beaten on dirt at Churchill Downs when last of seven at 1-5 odds. He even raced on what looked to be his preferred surface, grass, in his last start prior to the Blue Grass, where he did not run well. Can you say the grass to synthetic surface moved him up? Does he have the pedigree to move up on the surface? This is what I mean, to illustrate the very difficult task we have as handicappers.
Stately Victor’s trainer Mike Maker wins a very high % of races wherever he goes. He has already won a Breeders’ Cup race and several stakes events, so it’s obvious the trainer will pose no obstacle in having him in peak form. In the case of Stately Victory, I cannot envision him winning the Derby, and it would be a bit of a stretch to get him in the money. There is very little indication he can be effective at this level on dirt. Churchill is a quirky surface. Horses either handle it or don’t. In his one start over it, he was awful, in a spot where he should have romped.
(12) CONVEYANCE (Baffert Bob/Garcia Martin)
Conveyance is one of two Baffert entrants in the Derby. The much more fancied Lookin For Lucky is the other. Conveyance will not be too difficult to pick out from the other 19, as his style of racing is one-dimensional. Go to the lead and play catch me if you can. They will catch him, it’s just a matter of when. Conveyance was a perfect 2 for 2 as a juvenile and then returned as a 3 year old to win back to back Grade 3 stakes, one at Santa Anita and the second at Oaklawn in his first dirt start, running his unbeaten streak to four. Baffert then decided to ship Conveyance to Sunland Park for Sunland Park Derby, which was supposed to be easy pickins, as evidenced by his 3-5 odds. This stake was elevated to Grade 3 status this year as a result of Mine That Bird winning this same race before his upset victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby.
Conveyance was making his first start beyond a mile at Sunland but got a great set up to go wire to wire if he could stay the distance, as there wasn’t much other early speed signed on. He could not stay the distance, as recent maiden winner Endorsement blew by him in the final furlong to draw off by 3 widening lengths. This does not bode well for his chances of handling serious pace pressure in the Derby going an additional 1/8 of a mile. Conveyance is very likely to fold as the field turns for home.
(15) DISCREETLY MINE (Pletcher Todd A/Castellano J J)
No trainer in the history of the Kentucky Derby has had more entrants in one year than Todd Pletcher. You can add Discreetly Mine to this list. There are several horses in the field I feel I have a handle on. He is one of them. And The Wizard does not like his chances to win, or even to hit the board.
Discreetly Mine has won two races. He broke his maiden easily sprinting over a wet track at Saratoga. Even though he followed it up with second place finishes in the Grade 2 Futurity and the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont Park, Discreetly Mine gave me every indication that he had distance limitations.
As a 2 year old, he was trained by Stanley Hough, but was transferred over to Todd Pletcher for his 3 year old campaign. Discreetly Mine was a troubled fourth in a $100,000 stake in the slop at Gulfstream at 6 furlongs. Pletcher then shipped him to the Fair Grounds for the Grade 2 Risen Star, a race in which he would be faced with two obstacles. Discreetly Mine was being asked to go 2 turns for the first time and he had never won over a dry surface before. He could not have had a better set up in that race as the lone speed from a good inside post. Discreetly Mine was able to slow the pace down, and had enough left to hold on for the victory. Even though he passed two important tests, it did nothing to change my opinion of him. My suspicions would be confirmed when Discreetly Mine ran fourth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 27. He never did get the lead and instead chased a slow pace in second. In the stretch Discreetly Mine had every chance to gain on the leaders, but had no punch late, fading slowly to finish a disappointing fourth in what I felt was one of the weakest Louisiana Derbys I had ever seen.
Pletcher elected not to run Discreetly Mine in another Derby prep, so he returns off more than a 2 month layoff. I don’t like that one bit for a horse who will find 1-1/4 miles too far to be effective in the stretch. The only way I am using Discreetly Mine is when I punch the ALL button.
(8) DEAN'S KITTEN (Maker Michael J/Albarado R J)
Son of turf champ Kitten’s Joy is in this race only because he won a depleted version of the G2 Lanes End on a synthetic track at Turfway Park on March 27. Prior to that, he had done virtually nothing in graded stakes. He’s never raced on a dry dirt track, and in fact his only prior start on ‘real dirt’ was a horrible performance in an off-the-turf event at Belmont Park last October 4. I finish in the top half of this field would rank as a big success for this colt.
(18) BACKTALK (Amoss Thomas M/Mena M)
Son of near Triple Crown winner Smarty Jones was very precocious, winning his first three career starts. They were all sprints, and two of them were graded stakes, including the G3 Bashford Manor over this track. However, as the distances increased, Backtalk’s effectiveness decreased, and his only good race in four starts at 7F or beyond was a hard-earned win over a sloppy track in a minor stakes race Feb 26. I have the utmost of respect for his trainer, Tom Amoss, but must wonder why he has this sprinter entered in the Kentucky Derby.
(19) HOMEBOYKRIS (Dutrow Richard E/Dominguez R A)
Richard Dutrow Jr. scored a Kentucky Derby victory with Big Brown in 2008 and will attempt to win again this year with Homeboykris. Good luck to his connections. There is no reason to believe that Homeboykris has any chance to win, or even finish in the money. He qualifies for the Derby based primarily on his win in last year’s Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont. Homeboykris has raced 3 times since. He was a well beaten fifth in the Grade 2 Remson to close out his 2 year old campaign, then returned 2 months later, making his 3 year old debut in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. He dueled from the start, and then faded in the final 1/8 of a mile. His final prep for the Derby was in a strong allowance race on February 27, where he ran an improved race, finishing second to a quality rival in Radiohead. Homeboykris has not raced since. He will enter the Derby off more than a 2 month layoff. 5 of his 6 starts have been at a mile or less. He has one race at 1-1/8 miles, but he showed that day that the distance was a further than what he wants. Now Homeboykris will have to travel 1-1/4 miles against far tougher than what he has faced before. The layoff also poses a major obstacle. If I owned him, you can be sure that his next start would be in a race I felt he could win, so that Homeboykris could gain back the confidence he had as a 2 year old.
(10) PADDY O'PRADO (Romans Dale/Desormeaux K J)
Bred top and bottom for turf, Paddy has raced once on dirt, and that was over a sloppy Churchill Downs track in his career debut. He ran poorly, but turned things around a month later when moving to turf. He was a distant second in the weak G1 Blue Grass last time out, but that was on a synthetic track, not dirt. Can’t see him as any kind of factor in this race.
(9) MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (Barba Alexis/Rosario Joel)
Bred top and bottom for sprints, this colt has done surprisingly well running in routes thus far, including a turf stakes win for his only victory to date. He’s never raced on a dirt track, although he does have good breeding for a wet dirt surface, but this is still a negative, as first time dirt horses are often affected by the increased amount of kickback that they get, compared to their races on turf or on synthetic tracks. Make Music For Me really has not improved this year over his 2yo form, and I have difficulty seeing him as any kind of real factor in this race.
Wagering Strategy
We'll bet our top selection ICE BOX across the board, leaning a bit more on the win spot. We'll key both him and LOOKIN AT LUCKY on top of an exacta part-wheel and also on top of a trifecta part-wheel. We'll also back up the exactas with a box of the top two and third choice SIDNEY'S CANDY, who is quite capable of winning.
* A win, place, and show bet on (2)ICE BOX
* Exacta part-wheel 1-2 over 1-2-3-4-11-14-20 = $24 for a $2 wager
* Press with an exacta box of 1-2-20 = $24 for a $4 wager
* Trifecta part-wheel: 1-2 over 1-2-4-14-20 over 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-11-13-14-16-17-20 = $88 for a $1 wager
136th Running of the KY Derby
Churchill Downs Race 11 - 1 1/4m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $2,000,000. Post Time: ET
Race Synopsis
The Kentucky Derby almost always features a fast early pace anyways, but this year could be even quicker and more contested than normal. Super Saver, Line Of David, American Lion, Conveyance, and Sidney’s Candy all like the lead, and even if a couple of them try to rate a bit, then there are still 3 speed horses up front that will be ensuring a hot and contested pace. Some stalkers in this race will have a legitimate shot at the win if they can relax while not getting too close to a hot pace, but it is the closers who figure to have the advantage given the expected swift fractions. With wet weather expected on Friday and into Saturday, those who have displayed an affinity for an ‘off’ track may also have an advantage.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 LOOKIN AT LUCKY 3/1
2 ICE BOX 10/1
3 NOBLE'S PROMISE 12/1
4 SUPER SAVER 15/1
5 LINE OF DAVID 30/1
6 STATELY VICTOR 30/1
7 AMERICAN LION 30/1
8 DEAN'S KITTEN 50/1
9 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME 50/1
10 PADDY O'PRADO 20/1
11 DEVIL MAY CARE 10/1
12 CONVEYANCE 12/1
13 JACKSON BEND 15/1
14 MISSION IMPAZIBLE 20/1
15 DISCREETLY MINE 30/1
16 AWESOME ACT 10/1
17 DUBLIN 12/1
18 BACKTALK 50/1
19 HOMEBOYKRIS 50/1
20 SIDNEY'S CANDY 5/1
First Selection: (2) ICE BOX (Zito Nicholas P/Lezcano Jose)
The one thing you know about Ice Box is that he can win over a distance of ground. All 3 of his starts as a 3 year old have been at 1-1/8 miles. He was all out to prevail over four rivals in his 3 year old debut at Gulfstream returning from nearly a 3 month layoff. In his second start of 2010, Ice Box ran deceptively well when fifth to Eskendereya in a very fast renewal of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth stakes. Although beaten by 12 lengths, Ice Box was very slow away from the gate and then proceeded to race wide all the way after breaking from the difficult outermost post. What went largely unnoticed in that race is that he made a bold middle move while hung out about 4 or 5 wide on the far turn, losing lots of ground. The move was also premature, as Ice Box flattened out in the final furlong. These factors pointed out a “better than it looks” performance.
I must admit that even off the trip I saw that day, I did not think Ice Box was going to win the Florida Derby. When he rallied from last of eleven to win by a nose over Pleasant Prince, I knew I made a mistake in underestimating his chances, especially since he was a huge price (20-1) and trained by Nick Zito who has made a name for himself upsetting Grade 1 races with big price horses. Ice Box did benefit from a strong pace, the tiring speed in front of him, and from having two good races over the track. However, his final furlong in :12-3/5 was quite good, and he showed lots of heart in out-gaming two rivals in the final 100 yards. Had the race been longer, I believe that his margin of victory would have increased gradually, as he was showing no signs of slowing down. It was a fairly weak Florida Derby field, but then again, this crop as a whole is on the weak side, and few ‘prep’ races have come up strong.
Ice Box has shown some versatility in his 7-race career, but does seem to have found his niche as a late runner. Although 2 of his 3 wins have come stalking the leaders, I don’t expect these tactics to be employed in the Derby. Ice Box will be taken far off the pace, saving ground from his inside post, and make one late run, which worked to perfection in the Florida Derby. This could very well be the winning formula, as there is a lot of early speed in the race, and the pace is almost always fast and furious anyways in the 20-horse Derby field. With the scratch of Eskendereya, I don’t think that many other horses will be finishing as fast as Ice Box can, and if there’s any question about his breeding for 1-1/4 miles, then here is some evidence in his favor. His dam was a G2 winner going 1-1/2 miles on turf, and she also won on dirt, and the second dam is a half-sister to 1995 Kentucky Derby winner Spend A Buck. At expected big odds off a morning line of 10-1, I think Ice Box has a very legitimate chance to upset this big Derby field.
Second Selection: (1) LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Baffert Bob/Gomez G K)
If not for a head defeat after a tough trip in last years BC Juvenile, and then major trouble on the turn in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Lookin At Lucky would be a perfect 8 for 8. He would probably have been second choice to Eskendereya, but now is expected to be the favorite.
Lookin At Lucky, last year’s Juvenile Champion Male, is as tough as nails. A horse can look him in the eyes in the stretch and he snatches the victory from the jaws of defeat. If you put a line through his third place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, in his 6 wins, Lookin At Lucky’s margin of victory is a total of 5 lengths plus a head. That indicates one thing. He does just enough to get the job done. It is interesting to note, that despite a stellar 2 year old campaign, trainer Bob Baffert added blinkers when he made his 3 year old debut in the Grade 2 Rebel. I presume it was to get him to focus more late in the race, but whatever the reason was, there is no indication that they helped or hindered. That’s just the type of horse Lookin At Lucky is-just put him on the racetrack and he will give you his all, and that almost always is just enough to prevail.
With all these attributes, there’s certainly a lot to like about his chances to win the Kentucky Derby. It would be folly for me to say he would surprise me if he were to take down top prize, but I do have a few concerns. As far as pedigree goes, Lookin At Lucky does not really have ideal breeding for the taxing 1-1/4 mile distance. His sire, Smart Strike, who was a win machine, never won beyond 1-1/16 miles, but he has produced several long winded horses such as the multiple Grade 1 winner Curlin and champion turf horse English Channel, who both won at 1-1/4 miles and beyond. Lookin At Lucky’s dam side is more slanted towards success in sprints and up to 1-1/8 miles. After that, he will need to rely on his class to get him home. His mother was a sprinter but did produce Kensei, who won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga going 9 furlongs last year. If you go further back on the dam side, it’s the same story.
The other concern is that Lucky will have to break from post 1, which is very tough in the Derby, with 19 rivals breaking outside of him. Inside posts are not bad for horses that take back off the pace and make one late run, or even for a speedball who would be gunning for the lead, but a tactical horse like Lookin At Lucky is apt to get buried down inside somewhere in the middle of the field, having to deal with traffic the entire time. The potential will be there for him getting blocked when the speed starts to tire, and all in all there are a lot more potential headaches when breaking from post 1 as opposed to breaking more in the middle of the field.
Bob Baffert has won the Derby three times, and missed a fourth by a nose, so he knows how to get a horse to peak for this race, and I believe that Lookin At Lucky is set to peak. This is his third start off the 3-month layoff, often a horse’s best performance, and since shipping to Churchill Downs he’s been training brilliantly, including a remarkable work this week. He has the services of 2-time Eclipse Award winning jockey Garrett Gomez, and there are fewer anywhere that can remain as cool as he can under the pressure of a 20-horse field in the most important race of the year.
Third Selection: (20) SIDNEY'S CANDY (Sadler John W/Talamo Joseph)
Jockey Joe Talamo, who has ridden Sidney’s Candy in all 6 starts, was scheduled to ride the favorite in last year’s Kentucky Derby, I Want Revenge, who unfortunately was a late scratch the morning of the race. Talamo might get redemption a year later aboard this talented colt, who is a major player.
As a 2 year old, Sidney’s Candy broke his maiden in his second start at Del Mar. The pace he chased and the final time were one of the fastest by a juvenile running 5.5 furlongs in the country. When you factor in that the race was run over a synthetic surface, you have to think that he might have run faster over a conventional dirt course. It has been found that speed figures earned on track surfaces like Pro Ride, Polytrack and Tapeta, earn slower numbers than when these horses switch to dirt. If that’s the case, then Sidney’s Candy may have run the quickest time of them all.
Sidney’s Candy was given 4 months off after the big win, resurfacing in an allowance race at Santa Anita. He hopped at the start, then rushed up to chase a fast pace before tiring. His race was a bit disappointing, beaten 7 lengths as the 3-5 favorite. Trainer John Sadler then gave him 47 days off to prepare for a start in the Grade 2 San Vincente at Santa Anita. I found it interesting that Sadler would step him up into a tough stakes race off his defeat in allowance company. Sadler obviously knew that something went amiss that day. He had Sidney’s Candy razor sharp for his stakes engagement and the result was an authoritative win, once again in fast time. 26 days later, Sidney’s Candy was victorious in the Grade 2 San Felipe. He answered the question that day as to whether or not he could handle 2 turns against the toughest field he had ever faced.
The true test to see if Sidney’s Candy was a major Kentucky Derby contender would come in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, where he would face last year’s 2 year old champion Lookin At Lucky. In his most impressive victory to date, Sidney’s Candy proved he was one of the best 3 year olds in the country with a resounding 4-1/2 length victory at the 1-1/8 miles distance.
There has been much written that Sidney’s Candy is a “bet against” in the Kentucky Derby because of the perfect set ups he has had in his last 2 starts going a distance of ground. In both races he was able to get clear leads while setting slow paces. Pundit’s claim that when faced with much faster fractions in the Derby, he will be unable to carry his speed 1-1/4 miles. Many expect him to fade in the final furlong. I beg to differ. Even though Sidney’s Candy went wire to wire all 3 starts this year, who is to say he cannot stalk the leaders and then pounce on the far turn and dig in gamely through the long stretch at Churchill. He rated successfully in his first 2 starts, even though they were sprints. The Wizard is not quick to dismiss his chances, particularly since his top-class trainer, John Sadler, has stated definitively that he believes Candy can stalk successfully in this race. It’s hard to say what would have happened if Lookin For Lucky did not check sharply on the turn, drop back, and re-rally for third, in the Santa Anita Derby, but it is my contention that Sidney’s Candy would have won anyway, even though the margin would have probably been less than his 4-1/2 length victory. Although I do think Sidney’s Candy will run a big race in the Derby, my enthusiasm is tempered by his draw way out in post 20. Unless Joe Talamo can pull some magic out of his jockey’s cap, then Candy is almost destined for a wide trip, and losing a lot of ground on the turns in the Derby is not usually a formula for success.
Trainer John Sadler is one of the finest conditioners in the U.S. He does excellent work with horses of every class level, and has been winning training titles in Southern California. Sadler is also tremendous developing young horses. A case in point is this colt. Sidney’s Candy has a powerful, long stride, which is conducive to being successful at longer distances. Sidney’s Candy’s sire Candy Ride won all 6 starts career starts, and he broke the track record at 1-1/4 miles in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Candy Ride was as versatile and classy a runner as they come. He handled grass, dirt, and any kind of distance. The second dam Exchange was a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner, winning at distances from 6-1/2 furlongs to 1-1/2 miles. She handled any type of surface. Based on all of these important factors, Sidney’s Candy must be considered a major player in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Fourth Selection: (4) SUPER SAVER (Pletcher Todd A/Borel C H)
With the defections of Eskendereya, Rule, and Interactif, Super Saver may now be the best hope from Todd Pletcher’s army of runners that was initially entered in the Derby. In his debut he was a well-beaten second when sprinting over a wet track, beaten by another Pletcher Derby entrant, Discreetly Mine. Super Saver then broke his maiden impressively in his second start. He enjoyed the stretch to a mile in the slop. Off that victory, Pletcher saw enough potential in Super Saver to wheel him back 1 month later in the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont at the same distance. This was his first start on a dry track, and despite a fourth place finish, Super Saver ran very well. He set a strong pace from the start, repulsing several challenges, before giving ground grudgingly in the late stages. It is interesting to note that both the winner, Homeboykris and second place finisher, Discreetly Mine, are also in the Derby field.
Super Saver’s coming out party came 49 days later in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. This would be his first start around two turns and beyond a mile. Super Saver made full use of his good early speed, clearing early from his advantageous inside post, and easily wired the field by 5 lengths.
Todd Pletcher gave him the winter off to develop. He resurfaced 3-1/2 months later in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. Super Saver jumped right out to a 2 length lead, but entering the backstretch, he faced intense pressure. He dug in tenaciously while battling right to the wire, but had to settle for third, beaten a half-length. He had done all the dirty work for the winner Odysseus and second place finisher Schoolyard Dreams. It must be noted that both of those horses came out of the race to be well beaten in their subsequent start. Super Saver had passed a very important test, proving he was on his way to being a legitimate Derby contender if he could repeat that strong effort 4 weeks later in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Super Saver did pass that test while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. For only the second time in his career, Super Saver did not get the lead. He chased a fast pace in second, moved to challenge the lead at the top of the stretch, but was out-gamed late by Line Of David, losing by a neck while racing between the winner and Dublin to his outside for most of the stretch. The big question with Super Saver is how he will respond to those two very hard races since returning from his layoff. I feel that the two races can only benefit him. He had every chance to go by Line Of David last time out, but just couldn’t muster up the stamina to do so second start back. However, third start back he should be primed to peak. I prefer a horse that has proven he can look another horse in the eye, and fight on right to the wire. It’s not only about winning or losing. It’s all about heart and tenacity, and Super Saver has those important qualities. Both of his wins have been on the front end, but Super Saver showed in the Arkansas Derby that he could stalk and pounce. I have no doubt that 1-1/4 miles is well within his scope. His sire, Maria’s Mon, also sired 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos and the mare Wait A While, a multiple G1 turf winner going long who, like Super Saver, is out of an A.P. Indy mare. Super Saver’s dam Supercharger is related to many of the great horses owned and bred by the regal Phipps stable. I don’t feel that Super Saver will win the Kentucky Derby, but he is a threat to make his presence felt at the wire.
Fifth Selection: (14) MISSION IMPAZIBLE (Pletcher Todd A/Maragh Rajiv)
Mission Impazible is among several Todd Pletcher trainees who will enter the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby. He broke his maiden in his debut going 4-1/2 furlongs at Keeneland last spring over a synthetic surface. Mission Impazible stepped up into Grade 3 company with a good third on Oaks day at Churchill Downs. He suffered an injury after that race, and was put on the shelf, resurfacing on January 9 in the slop at Gulfstrream. Mission was beaten a head after dueling from the start. In 3 starts he had yet to try 2 turns, but he would get his chance on February 20 going a mile in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn. Mission ran deceptively well, chasing a strong pace while racing wide throughout from post 10. He ended up finishing fourth, but did not lose much ground at any point in the race and actually was coming on again in the final stages of the race.
The verdict was still out whether or not Mission Impazible could win over a distance of ground, but he dispelled any doubts when he upset the field at 7-1 in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 27 while traveling 1-1/8 miles for the first time. He sat a perfect trip from an inside post, and like in the Southwest, he made two moves, but his final rally got him the money.
I felt that the Louisiana Derby was a relatively weak group. Mission Impazible beat little compared to what he will face Saturday. However, he does continue to improve, and his final furlong in about :12-2/5 in the Louisiana Derby was actually quite good. In the Kentucky Derby he figures to rate behind the first flight of horses and make a move on the far turn. I don’t have a lot of confidence that he’ll sustain his rally in the stretch while meeting a much tougher group of horses, but on the outside chance that he does, he could get a minor award at a price.
The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(11) DEVIL MAY CARE (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
As if he didn’t have enough male contenders for the Derby, Todd Pletcher will now enter this filly, who was probably going to run in the Kentucky Oaks until the recent defections from the Derby of the Pletcher trio of Eskendereya, Rule, and Interactif. She won her first two career starts, including the G1 Frizette, but then had a bad trip while also seemingly not caring for the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita in the BC Juvenile Fillies to conclude her 2yo campaign.
When she returned from a 3-1/2 month layoff to begin her 3yo season, Devil May Care threw a fit in the gate and then put forth a very disappointing race on Feb 20, fading badly after making a middle-move. However, Pletcher got her back on track for the G2 Bonnie Miss on March 20. That was her first time racing at 1-1/8 mils, and she won going away in swift time while leaving her field strung out behind, a sign of a quality victory.
Although she won the Bonnie Miss by a widening margin, Devil May Care’s final furlong of :13-3/5 was actually quite slow, casting some doubt on her ability to get 1-1/4 miles in top company, especially against males. She does appear primed for a peak effort third start back, but before we can include this filly among those that had success to any degree in the Derby or in any of the Triple Crown races, she has an awful lot to prove. If she can work out her usual good stalking trip, then maybe she can hang around for a minor award, but in a 20-horse field of males that’s a big ‘if’.
(3) NOBLE'S PROMISE (Mcpeek Kenneth G/Martinez W)
Although he’s won just one graded stakes race, the G1 Breeders Futurity last October, this colt still ranks second only to Lookin At Lucky in graded stakes earnings. That’s because he’s been very consistent from the start, finishing second and third in two other G1 races and also missing by just a head in the G2 Rebel. He really ran a big race in that initial start on a ‘real dirt’ track and led for most of the stretch before getting worn down in the final strides by Lookin At Lucky. Off that super performance he was favored in the G1 Arkansas Derby on April 10, but he came up with the first dull effort of his 8-race career, checking in 5th of 9. It’s hard to say just how much a bumping incident at the break hurt his chances, but he did find himself much farther off the pace than usual, and that may have affected him mentally.
Can Noble’s Promise bounce back here? Most certainly, and his best-of-30 5F drill over the track on April 20 was impressive. He also has a tremendous pedigree for a wet track, which is looking more and more like it may be a factor on Saturday. However, the concern now becomes this 1-1/4 mile distance, because Noble’s Promise has a pedigree that’s really more oriented toward speed than stamina. The distance, in my mind, is the biggest question mark for Promise in this race, and is why I don’t have him ranked higher.
(16) AWESOME ACT (Noseda Jeremy/Leparoux Julien R)
Awesome Act began his career in England at Newmarket, where he strung two second place finishes together at 7 furlongs on the grass. In both races he was very rank early, which probably cost him a closer finish. Trainer Jeremy Noseda shipped him to Kempton for his third start, which was run over a synthetic track. Awesome Act was no threat, finishing a well beaten third in a 5 horse field. That was the last time he would try that surface. Noseda put him right back on the turf 35 days later at Goodwood, where he finally broke his maiden despite once again fighting the jockey soon after the start.
Awesome Act would face his stiffest test in the Group 1 Dewhurst at Newmarket on October 17. He missed the break, and then was bumped. He never settled, finishing a well beaten ninth. Analyzing his 5 races, I could not understand why Awesome Act would be shipped to the US for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita going a mile. He ran much better than expected at 31-1 in that race to be a fast-closing fourth. Awesome Act was racing on Lasix for the first time, which no doubt helped.
Off that one race, Awesome Act had proven to have some quality. This was confirmed 4 months later, when he shipped to Aqueduct to run in the Grade 3 Gotham. Despite traffic on the far turn, he bolted to the lead entering the stretch, and held on gamely to the wire. On closer inspection, I felt his race was not as good as it looked visually. When Awesome Act surged to the front, the rider appeared to be making a premature run, but that may have been a result of Awesome Act wanting to take off when he did, rather than the rider calling upon him to make the move, as if racing a bit rank. He was running down a foe of questionable quality in Yawanna Twist, a New York bred, who had 2 career starts, and had never been beyond 6 furlongs.
Awesome Act would have his final Derby Prep in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He would face a very tough rival in the expected Derby favorite Eskenderya. After stumbling at the break, and being rank once again on the turn, Awesome Act flattened out from the 3/16 pole, finishing a well-beaten third. You could say his ability to rally was hurt by a slow pace, but nevertheless, I felt he should have out-finished Jackson Bend to get second. It was later revealed that he had lost a shoe during the race, and that may have been a factor in his less than stellar finish.
In the Kentucky Derby, Awesome Act will face 19 other horses. He has proven that he has trouble relaxing early in a race, which will zap his energy when the real running begins at the top of the stretch. As a 2 year old, Awesome Act never raced beyond 7 furlongs in his first 5 starts. He appeared to get leg weary in deep stretch in the Gotham at 1-1/16 miles in his first dirt outing. In the Wood, Awesome Act showed no punch late stretching out a 1/16 of a mile further. Between his bad behavior, on a day where 150,000 + fans will converge on Churchill Downs, and his possible distance limitations, I cannot see him winning this race. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Awesome Act to hit the board, but this is a horse I have more negatives on than positives.
(7) AMERICAN LION (Harty Eoin/Flores D R)
American Lion raced on synthetic surfaces in his first 5 starts and was an impressive front running winner in breaking his maiden in his second start going 7F at Keeneland. He then shipped to Hollywood for the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue and scored a game half length victory for his second win at 7 furlongs. He was given nearly 3 months off, resurfacing in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis. Despite finishing third, I felt it was his best race to date. American Lion battled through quick fractions and gave ground grudgingly in the late stages in his first two-turn start. One month later, American Lion would face his sternest test in the Grade 2 San Felipe. For the first time he would be meeting the sharp and improving Sidney’s Candy. Trainer Eoin Harty elected to add blinkers for the first time in that race, but American Lion did not respond well to the hood. Right from the start he was rank and jockey Leparoux could not get him to relax. He chased Sidney’s Candy, but had no answer when asked to cut into that ones margin at the top of the stretch.
Blinkers were removed for his final Derby prep. Instead of staying in California for the Santa Anita Derby, Harty decided to ship American Lion to Hawthorne in Chicago to test him on the dirt for the first time in his career. He drew post one and on paper looked to be the controlling speed in an otherwise paceless field. New rider David Flores put American Lion on the lead as soon as the gate opened and set slow fractions. He faced a stiff challenge on the far turn, but had plenty left to repulse the bid, winning by 2-3/4 expanding lengths while clearly benefitting from the slow pace.
American Lion enters the Derby with a few positives in his corner. In 6 starts, he won at 3 different racetracks. He has won on the lead and stalking. American Lion has won half his starts and is bred well on both sides to handle the Derby distance. What I don’t like about him is that he will never get away with slow fractions if he even gets the lead. If American Lion is up close to the lead, he will be chasing quicker fractions than he is accustomed to attending. While he is eligible to improve further in his second start on dirt, I have not yet seen anything from Lion that leads me to believe that he’s anything more than a G3 or maybe G2 caliber horse.
(13) JACKSON BEND (Zito Nicholas P/Smith M E)
Jackson Bend is the poster child for the word consistency. There isn’t a horse in the Derby field that has started more than him, 9 times, with 5 wins and 4 seconds. Only once has he raced outside of Florida, and that was in the G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his final prep. He was no match in the stretch for Eskendereya, but he battled gamely right to the wire to hold off Awesome Act for second. That rival is expected to be a much shorter price than Jackson Bend in the Derby.
He showed quality and grit in his first 5 starts, which were all in sprints, primarily against Florida breds. Former trainer Stanley Gold tried him at 2 turns for the first time in a restricted Florida Stallion stake worth $400,000 on October 17, and he did not disappoint with a decisive win in very fast time. Following that race, Jackson Bend was privately purchased by trainer nick Zito for his main client Robert Lapenta. I felt it was a great buy, because you always know he will give you a 100 % every time, and in the process pad his earnings. Jackson Bends 3 year old campaign has continued where he left off last year. He has not won in 3 starts, but as is his custom, he has refused to succumb to intense pressure late, while holding on to second in all three outings. Unfortunately, he ran into Eskendereya in his last 2 starts and was no match. Neither was anyone else.
You can never underestimate Nick Zito when he has a long-priced horse in a marquee race. When you combine this fact with the consummate professional racehorse, you cannot easily dismiss Jackson Bend’s chances. I don’t think that he’s a win factor, since his pedigree speaks out loud and clear that 1-1/4 miles is further than what he wants. As a matter of fact, I feel he is at his best going a mile or shorter. But you cannot tell this to Jackson Bend, because he couldn’t care less about pedigree. He will run his typical A + race, and that could be good enough to get a piece of the pie.
(5) LINE OF DAVID (Sadler John W/Bejarano R)
These days it would be folly to totally dismiss anything that trainer John Sadler sends to post, especially a colt who just won a Grade 1 race. Sadler has been setting the standard in Southern California for the last year and a half, and has done a remarkable job bringing this colt along quickly from a maiden to a G1 winner in less than 2 months. The difference seems to have been the addition of blinkers, as Line Of David has reeled off three straight victories since adding the hood. However, all three have been gate-to-wire, which poses a problem for him when you figure that the pace in this 20-horse field figures to be fast and contested. He did hold on very gamely in the Arkansas Derby to fend off stretch bids from Super Saver and Dublin after setting a pace that was actually quite fast. However, he was free and clear on that lead, and that’s a different situation for a horse compared to when he’s fighting for the lead from the start. This colt may prove to be underrated at this point, but I still can’t envision him contesting the lead and lasting for the duration of this race. If he somehow gets another loose lead, then maybe he can hold on unexpectedly, but I don’t foresee that happening.
(17) DUBLIN (Lukas D Wayne/Thompson T J)
I feel I have a good read on Dublin, and that is that I don’t like him much in the Derby. He has proven to be most effective as a closing sprinter. Dublin has run well in 3 starts this year, but when he has had every opportunity to win any or all 3 of those races, Dublin has hung like a chandelier. His claim to fame was an impressive win in last year’s Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga at 7 furlongs. Dublin got a perfect set up, with a fast pace to close into, and a clean outside trip. He bombed in his final start at 2 in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill and then was given time off in preparation for his 3 year old campaign.
Dublin resurfaced in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn nearly 4 months later. He raced sluggishly early. He found his best stride in mid-stretch, and finished up well to run second, beaten less than a length by Conveyance, who was undefeated at the time. Trainer Wayne Lukas decided to keep Dublin at Oaklawn to prepare him for the Grade 2 Rebel. He was heavily bet at 7-5 into the teeth of last years 2 year old champion Lookin For Lucky, who shipped in from California for the race. New rider Corey Nakatani moved a bit too soon, but Dublin did have every chance to sustain his rally further than he did. He ran out of gas in the final 1/8 of a mile. With two races at Oaklawn, Lukas entered him in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Once again, Dublin was in perfect position to get the money through the length of the stretch, but showed no heart to punch it in very late when it counted.
Dublin is your typical sucker horse that has great potential, but not enough heart. He has never won around 2 turns, and has had every chance to do so. Even though his sire Afleet Alex won The Derby and Preakness, Dublin’s mother, Classy Mirage, was a top class sprinter with speed, and her pedigree is geared more for speed and shorter distances. What is going to happen to Dublin at 1-1/4 miles when he is hanging at shorter distances? Even when he gets the perfect pace set up, it does not help. Dublin is a big, long striding horse that needs an outside trip and clear sailing. He is unlikely to get what he wants without losing too much ground. He is not agile and has just one late move. If Dublin is confronted with traffic at any point in the race, he will find it difficult to recover. I would not be shocked if he hit the board, mostly due to my respect for Lukas, who has won four Derbys, rather than the horse himself. But the most I will be playing him is underneath when I press the ALL button.
(6) STATELY VICTOR (Maker Michael J/Garcia A)
Lit up the board at 40-1 in the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland when he rallied from dead last through stretch to blow by the field and win by 4-1/4 lengths. Off his prior 7 starts, Stately Victor never a ran a race which would entice you to run to the window and bet him that day. He had only one win to that point, and that was his maiden victory in his second start on grass at Saratoga. I remember selecting him that day off his solid turf and distance pedigree. Since that win back in September, Stately Victor had not hit the board until the Blue Grass.
The million dollar question is how did Stately Victor win the race and earn enough money to be in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby? The Wizard has a possible explanation. As a handicapper, how do you make an educated decision on what horses can run well on dirt and synthetic? What about grass horses switching to Polytrack , Pro-Ride or Tapeta? Can these horses improve switching to these surfaces, or not? These questions often have no definitive answers. Many people have said that horses that run well on grass can run well on synthetic. Some mention that there are horses that have the right pedigree for it. When I research the results of these races, I can see some correlation, but not enough evidence to confirm this. Stately Victor illustrates this confusion. Prior to his win in the Blue Grass, he had run on grass 3 times, synthetic once, and dirt 3 times. Stately Victor did have an impressive grass victory in his turf debut, but with the exception of a second place finish in an off the grass race in his debut, his other 2 dirt starts were awful. As a matter of fact, he was beaten on dirt at Churchill Downs when last of seven at 1-5 odds. He even raced on what looked to be his preferred surface, grass, in his last start prior to the Blue Grass, where he did not run well. Can you say the grass to synthetic surface moved him up? Does he have the pedigree to move up on the surface? This is what I mean, to illustrate the very difficult task we have as handicappers.
Stately Victor’s trainer Mike Maker wins a very high % of races wherever he goes. He has already won a Breeders’ Cup race and several stakes events, so it’s obvious the trainer will pose no obstacle in having him in peak form. In the case of Stately Victory, I cannot envision him winning the Derby, and it would be a bit of a stretch to get him in the money. There is very little indication he can be effective at this level on dirt. Churchill is a quirky surface. Horses either handle it or don’t. In his one start over it, he was awful, in a spot where he should have romped.
(12) CONVEYANCE (Baffert Bob/Garcia Martin)
Conveyance is one of two Baffert entrants in the Derby. The much more fancied Lookin For Lucky is the other. Conveyance will not be too difficult to pick out from the other 19, as his style of racing is one-dimensional. Go to the lead and play catch me if you can. They will catch him, it’s just a matter of when. Conveyance was a perfect 2 for 2 as a juvenile and then returned as a 3 year old to win back to back Grade 3 stakes, one at Santa Anita and the second at Oaklawn in his first dirt start, running his unbeaten streak to four. Baffert then decided to ship Conveyance to Sunland Park for Sunland Park Derby, which was supposed to be easy pickins, as evidenced by his 3-5 odds. This stake was elevated to Grade 3 status this year as a result of Mine That Bird winning this same race before his upset victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby.
Conveyance was making his first start beyond a mile at Sunland but got a great set up to go wire to wire if he could stay the distance, as there wasn’t much other early speed signed on. He could not stay the distance, as recent maiden winner Endorsement blew by him in the final furlong to draw off by 3 widening lengths. This does not bode well for his chances of handling serious pace pressure in the Derby going an additional 1/8 of a mile. Conveyance is very likely to fold as the field turns for home.
(15) DISCREETLY MINE (Pletcher Todd A/Castellano J J)
No trainer in the history of the Kentucky Derby has had more entrants in one year than Todd Pletcher. You can add Discreetly Mine to this list. There are several horses in the field I feel I have a handle on. He is one of them. And The Wizard does not like his chances to win, or even to hit the board.
Discreetly Mine has won two races. He broke his maiden easily sprinting over a wet track at Saratoga. Even though he followed it up with second place finishes in the Grade 2 Futurity and the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont Park, Discreetly Mine gave me every indication that he had distance limitations.
As a 2 year old, he was trained by Stanley Hough, but was transferred over to Todd Pletcher for his 3 year old campaign. Discreetly Mine was a troubled fourth in a $100,000 stake in the slop at Gulfstream at 6 furlongs. Pletcher then shipped him to the Fair Grounds for the Grade 2 Risen Star, a race in which he would be faced with two obstacles. Discreetly Mine was being asked to go 2 turns for the first time and he had never won over a dry surface before. He could not have had a better set up in that race as the lone speed from a good inside post. Discreetly Mine was able to slow the pace down, and had enough left to hold on for the victory. Even though he passed two important tests, it did nothing to change my opinion of him. My suspicions would be confirmed when Discreetly Mine ran fourth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 27. He never did get the lead and instead chased a slow pace in second. In the stretch Discreetly Mine had every chance to gain on the leaders, but had no punch late, fading slowly to finish a disappointing fourth in what I felt was one of the weakest Louisiana Derbys I had ever seen.
Pletcher elected not to run Discreetly Mine in another Derby prep, so he returns off more than a 2 month layoff. I don’t like that one bit for a horse who will find 1-1/4 miles too far to be effective in the stretch. The only way I am using Discreetly Mine is when I punch the ALL button.
(8) DEAN'S KITTEN (Maker Michael J/Albarado R J)
Son of turf champ Kitten’s Joy is in this race only because he won a depleted version of the G2 Lanes End on a synthetic track at Turfway Park on March 27. Prior to that, he had done virtually nothing in graded stakes. He’s never raced on a dry dirt track, and in fact his only prior start on ‘real dirt’ was a horrible performance in an off-the-turf event at Belmont Park last October 4. I finish in the top half of this field would rank as a big success for this colt.
(18) BACKTALK (Amoss Thomas M/Mena M)
Son of near Triple Crown winner Smarty Jones was very precocious, winning his first three career starts. They were all sprints, and two of them were graded stakes, including the G3 Bashford Manor over this track. However, as the distances increased, Backtalk’s effectiveness decreased, and his only good race in four starts at 7F or beyond was a hard-earned win over a sloppy track in a minor stakes race Feb 26. I have the utmost of respect for his trainer, Tom Amoss, but must wonder why he has this sprinter entered in the Kentucky Derby.
(19) HOMEBOYKRIS (Dutrow Richard E/Dominguez R A)
Richard Dutrow Jr. scored a Kentucky Derby victory with Big Brown in 2008 and will attempt to win again this year with Homeboykris. Good luck to his connections. There is no reason to believe that Homeboykris has any chance to win, or even finish in the money. He qualifies for the Derby based primarily on his win in last year’s Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont. Homeboykris has raced 3 times since. He was a well beaten fifth in the Grade 2 Remson to close out his 2 year old campaign, then returned 2 months later, making his 3 year old debut in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. He dueled from the start, and then faded in the final 1/8 of a mile. His final prep for the Derby was in a strong allowance race on February 27, where he ran an improved race, finishing second to a quality rival in Radiohead. Homeboykris has not raced since. He will enter the Derby off more than a 2 month layoff. 5 of his 6 starts have been at a mile or less. He has one race at 1-1/8 miles, but he showed that day that the distance was a further than what he wants. Now Homeboykris will have to travel 1-1/4 miles against far tougher than what he has faced before. The layoff also poses a major obstacle. If I owned him, you can be sure that his next start would be in a race I felt he could win, so that Homeboykris could gain back the confidence he had as a 2 year old.
(10) PADDY O'PRADO (Romans Dale/Desormeaux K J)
Bred top and bottom for turf, Paddy has raced once on dirt, and that was over a sloppy Churchill Downs track in his career debut. He ran poorly, but turned things around a month later when moving to turf. He was a distant second in the weak G1 Blue Grass last time out, but that was on a synthetic track, not dirt. Can’t see him as any kind of factor in this race.
(9) MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (Barba Alexis/Rosario Joel)
Bred top and bottom for sprints, this colt has done surprisingly well running in routes thus far, including a turf stakes win for his only victory to date. He’s never raced on a dirt track, although he does have good breeding for a wet dirt surface, but this is still a negative, as first time dirt horses are often affected by the increased amount of kickback that they get, compared to their races on turf or on synthetic tracks. Make Music For Me really has not improved this year over his 2yo form, and I have difficulty seeing him as any kind of real factor in this race.
Wagering Strategy
We'll bet our top selection ICE BOX across the board, leaning a bit more on the win spot. We'll key both him and LOOKIN AT LUCKY on top of an exacta part-wheel and also on top of a trifecta part-wheel. We'll also back up the exactas with a box of the top two and third choice SIDNEY'S CANDY, who is quite capable of winning.
* A win, place, and show bet on (2)ICE BOX
* Exacta part-wheel 1-2 over 1-2-3-4-11-14-20 = $24 for a $2 wager
* Press with an exacta box of 1-2-20 = $24 for a $4 wager
* Trifecta part-wheel: 1-2 over 1-2-4-14-20 over 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-11-13-14-16-17-20 = $88 for a $1 wager
Wizard's Crystal Ball:
#9 TWELVE PACK SHELLY (Race 7) Is the only member of this field, excluding the two first time starters, who is not coming into this race off a win over the Polytrack at Keeneland. This 2yo Pennsylvania bred crushed a maiden special weights field at Laurel by nearly 11 lengths in very fast time. Trainer John Salzman, Jr. is a 25% trainer and he doesn't ship all the way from his Midatlantic base unless he feels he has a huge chance. Her dirt experience can be the difference in this field, and Salzman brings along his rider Harry Vega for good measure. One to beat.
#6 SILVER TIMBER (Race 8) Quickly regained his sharp past form when he was claimed off top turf sprint trainer Linda Rice last April at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Chad Brown was rewarded with a sharp win against state-bred allowance company which then led to a start in the G3 Jaipur at Belmont. The gelding did not disappoint, rolling to a 1 1/2 length win. Two races later he captured the G3 Woodford at Keeneland over a course labeled "soft." He was a contender in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint next out, but a terrible inside post eliminated any chance he had. Showed he was still in sharp form for Brown barn with an impressive win at Keeneland in his first start of this year. He'll have to spot weight to this field because of all this success, but I believe this 7yo gelding is one of the best turf sprinters in the land. Julien Leparoux is back aboard.
#8 READY TO SING (Race 12) Dueled through a very fast pace in her debut at Fair Grounds earlier this year and yielded late in the stretch for a decent 4th place finish. She returned for her second start on Feb. 20 and again faced a fast pace scenario. This time she rated right off the early lead set by the eventual winner, took dead aim on the rival in the stretch, and narrowly lost the bob at the wire. That rival returned to run a great 2nd in a graded stakes next out and is in today's G1 Kentucky Oaks feature. This More Than Ready filly was given time to recover from that race and has been working extremely well at Keeneland in preparation for her return. I believe she is ready to run another big race, and it doesn't hurt that she picks up the services of Julien Leparoux for this start.
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE CONFIRM BEFORE WAGERING.
1st CD 7f Alw 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $52,500. (10:30)/ 9:30/ 8:30/ 7:30
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 1-2-3) # HorseML Wizard Comments4 FORTUNE PLAY8/1 Returns to the track where one of her two career victories occurred last November in a MSW contest. Regressed chasing fast fractions at Oaklawn Park on March 27. Has been freshened a bit since. Should benefit from a softer pace scenario as well today and drops. Sports a maintenance-type drill in the interim reuniting with Thompson.7 YONAKEE6/1 Exits a swiftly paced race at Oaklawn on March 31 off nearly a two-month break. Raced evenly from an outside post and finished with interest late that day. Projects to move forward off that comeback effort. Has been sharpened for speed in the AM over today’s track. Draws a better post at 7F with Theriot.2 RAVI'S SONG2/1 Returns. Has not been sighted since a good 2nd-place finish in the Prairie Meadows Oaks last September. Both of her wins have come over a middle-distance of ground. May ultimately need more real estate for a top effort. Has been training steadily for her comeback since late January. Drops and gets F. C. Torres.
2nd CD 1m MdnSpWt 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $48,000. (11:00)/10:00/ 9:00/ 8:00
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 2-3-4),pick 4 (2-3-4-5) # HorseML Wizard Comments7 AZURITE7/2 Encouraging debut effort at Fair Grounds on March 13. Closed willingly late to take down the place. Well-spotted for her 2nd lifetime start. Trainer David Carroll’s runners tend to move forward off their initial effort. Has been working steadily since arriving at Churchill. Gets off the rail as Mena climbs back aboard again. Stretches out in distance. 2 ISLAND BOUND6/1 Improved 2nd at Gulfstream Park on March 31 in 2nd start. Raced evenly for the place behind a daylight winner. An obvious threat with another move forward while making her Churchill Downs debut. Sports a ‘sneaky-good’ 5F prep breeze on April 19 over today’s track. Gets a rider change to Julien Leparoux to complete a potent trainer-jock combo.1 RIGAMARO6/1 Ran creditably to finish 2nd on April 10 at Oaklawn when hammered down on the tote to odds of 2-1. Her late rally came up short in a useful effort. Near-bullet speed sharpening gate work on April 25 hints at another good showing with a clean getaway from the rail. Gets an upgrade in riders to the New York-based Rajiv Maragh. 11 SMARTY'S DREAM9/2 Showed surprise speed when turning back to a sprint over Polytrack at Kee. on April 2. She moved to challenge between horses and finished second despite a bumping incident. One turn appears to be her game. Has run well over a conventional dirt surface in the past with Robby Albarado.
3rd CD 1m (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $48,000. (11:30)/10:30/ 9:30/ 8:30
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 3-4-5) # HorseML Wizard Comments3 QUICK DELIVERY7/2 Returns to the grass. He was beaten a short head in his well bet/well meant turf debut at FG on March 7. Gomez got to know him in his last start, and both horse and rider should benefit from that race, especially with today’s change in venue. Has tactical speed to sit a good inside trip drawing an advantageous post.10 HYBRID9/2 Improved his position in his unveiling at Keeneland without threatening on April 3. Stretches-out and switches to the lawn with a pedigree to handle both changes. Trainer Kenny McPeek does well with first-timers on the grass and with runners making their 2nd career start as well. Partners once again with jockey Robby Albarado. 1 SPOON RIVER LEW30/1 Throw-out his most recent effort at Kee. over Polytrack, a surface he did not appear to handle. Showed improvement in an even fourth-place finish on grass at FG in his prior start. A smart 5F breeze at CD on April 22 hints at a dramatic turnaround today. The rail and a flat mile should only enhance his chances.5 BELGRAVE SQUARE5/1 Gets a trainer change to Joe Woodard off a private purchase. Has shown marked improvement since blinkers were added this winter at Tampa. Steps up in sharp form for new connections. Has demonstrated an ability to set or stalk the early pace. Should benefit from one of the top grass riders around in Jose Lezcano.Race Notes: OFF THE TURF: (3) QUICK DELIVERY (10) HYBRID (5) BELGRAVE SQUARE (7) BIRD EMPIRE
4th CD 6fAlwOClm $75,000 3yo Fillies, Purse: $50,000. (12:05)/11:05/10:05/ 9:05
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 4-5-6),pick 4 (races 4-5-6-7) # HorseML Wizard Comments11 FUZZY BRITCHES5/2 Takes a precipitous class drop while being entered for a selling price today. This Aqu. stakes winner regressed badly in a Grade 3 event on March 20, finishing an even fourth. Should relish today’s softer competition and projects to sit closer to the front if on her game. Has worked twice since and gets California-based Joel Rosario.4 ELUSIVE JOZI10/1 Has been over-matched since her gritty MSW victory at the Fair Grounds on December 19. Today, she gets some much-needed class relief and returns to the distance of her maiden score. She has handled the quirky Churchill Downs surface in the morning and projects to be on, or at least near the lead turning back to six furlongs.5 GLOWING REPORT15/1 Chased a pedestrian pace in the Grade 2 Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland and then succumbed readily to finish a well-beaten fourth. Takes a smart drop to face preliminary Allowance runners over a traditional dirt surface and reunites with jockey Terry Thompson, all of which are definite pluses. Has the speed to lead on the drop. 6 MALLORY SQUARE6/1 Good second for new trainer Gerry Carwood, albeit over a synthetic surface on April 11. Change in race, closed from off-the-pace for the place in Lexington, which was only her second start with blinkers on. Might just revert back to pace-pressing tactics today in her second effort with Maragh aboard.
5th CD 1m (Turf) AlwOClm $80,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $55,000. (12:43)/11:43/10:43/ 9:43
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 5-6-7) # HorseML Wizard Comments5 FLAMING SLEW12/1 Obviously something was amiss on Nov. 25. She barely lifted a hoof that day, and was immediately placed on-the-shelf. She was never off-the-board in four prior efforts over Churchill grass, and looks well-spotted to get back on track today. Has the ability to either leave or rate, and can put forth a top effort when fresh with Maragh climbing aboard. 3 MISSIT4/1 Gets a trainer change to Attfield who is is excellant with grass horses and horses coming off the layoff. Versatile runner is fond of today's 1 mile distance. Good post. Smith back aboard.11 DANZON7/2 Back on grass and down in class for trainer Kellyn Gorder. Narrowly missed annexing an overnight stakes contest at Turfway on March 27. Prior stakes winner on turf might have lost a step or two on grass, but she is fits well in today’s high-end optional claiming affair. Should get pace to run at with Johnny V. getting the call.4 FOREST TRAIL4/1 Could have been a tad short off a brief respite on April 9 at Keeneland. She rallied willingly while a bit wide in the lane, but was a bit one-paced late. Will obviously be much fitter today. Might also prefer to sit a bit closer to the front, and draws a better post for pace-pressing tactics. Leparoux has the call once more. Race Notes: OFF THE TURF13) MULTIPASS (2) SUSIES GAL (11) DANZON
6th CD 1 1/16m Grade II 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $400,000. ( 1:26)/12:26/11:26/10:26
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 6-7-8),pick 6 (6-7-8-9-10-11) # HorseML Wizard Comments4 RACHEL ALEXANDRA3/5 The 2009 Horse of the Year returns to the site of one her greatest triumphs. “Rachel” literally vanquished an overmatched field in last year’s Kentucky Oaks at Churchill, a race which seemed to propel her to even greater heights. She now attempts to regain some lost luster which came with a defeat at the Fair Grounds on March 13. A race she obviously needed off a long break, she was valiant in defeat nevertheless, but was unable to repel the late charge of the eventual winner, Zardana. She appears poised to exact her revenge against that rival today, as the Steve Asmussen trained four-year-old filly has been firing on all cylinders of late at CD. Borel takes his usual seat aboard the filly for her Ky. return.3 ZARDANA3/1 Dispensed a gritty and career best effort heading East on March 13 to take the measure of Rachel Alexandra, coming off a long layoff as well that day. Trainer John Shireffs will attempt to capture ‘lightning in a bottle’ a second time; but faces an uphill battle today despite getting additional weight from the odds-on favorite over her ‘home track’.2 MORENA20/1 Has yet to win since arriving in the U.S., but has run creditably on several occasions. One of those aforementioned efforts was a second-place finish last fall in the Fall City Handicap over today’s track. Appears likely to garner a minor award again, switching back to the main track while reuniting with Jose Lezcano
7th CD 5f Grade III 2yo, Purse: $100,000. ( 2:10)/ 1:10/12:10/11:10
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) # HorseML Wizard Comments9 TWELVE PACK SHELLY3/1 Gave no one a chance in her debut, and looks to be on the brink of doing the same again today. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!! 7 NINA FEVER5/2 Facile winner in quick time in her well bet/well meant debut at Keeneland on April 3, drawing away with complete authority late. She must still prove that she is capable of reproducing a similar effort over a conventional dirt track for trainer Wesley Ward, who excels with young runners. Albarado stays here. 6 FINAL MESA7/2 Makes up the second-half of the uncoupled Wesley Ward entry. She also ‘whistled’ in her unveiling as a much-the-best winner at Keeneland. Handled dirt in the AM in Florida prior to her blow-out victory. Loses Albarado to the second-choice, but adds a capable replacement in Joel Rosario 3 WETZEL5/1 Game win to begin her career at Kee. on April 2. This homebred runner has since been turned over to Richard Dutrow Jr. Appears to have landed in a tough spot for her first race vs. winners. Rider change to Bejarano.
8th CD 5f (Turf) Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $100,000. ( 3:04)/ 2:04/ 1:04/12:04
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 8-9-10),pick 4 (8-9-10-11) # HorseML Wizard Comments6 SILVER TIMBER2/1 Attempts to keep an his record unblemished in 2010 for trainer Chad Brown. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL! 3 CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE5/2 Exits the same race as the first selection. He chased the pace that day despite being pinned down on the inside early on. He continued on willingly when changing lanes in the stretch, even though he bumped another rival as a result. Gets off the rail. Has never lost over the Churchill Downs turf course in three lifetime starts. Theriot rides him back.7 STARFISH BAY7/2 A girl amongst boys, she easily dispatched an overmatched field in very fast time at GP on Feb. 21. Some of her best races have been when fresh, and she certainly does not have to carry her racetrack around with her. Dangerous wire-to-wire threat if able to clear this field early on. Trainer Todd Pletcher switches to main rider John Velazquez. 1 MORALIST15/1 Took down the show behind the top pick on April 10, stepping up in class/switching back to the weeds. He set a pressured pace and then tired slowly late to finish third, acquitting himself quite well in defeat. Has demonstrated in the past that he can win without the lead. Reunites with Brandon Meier, who was aboard for his most recent win. Race Notes: OFF THE TURF: (9) FORMIDABLE (4) HEAVENLY CHORUS (1) MORALIST (10) CENTRAL CITY
9th CD 1 1/16m Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $150,000. ( 3:54)/ 2:54/ 1:54/12:54
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 9-10-11) # HorseML Wizard Comments4 COOL COAL MAN4/1 Tough task at Gulfstream Park on March 13. Forced/set a hot pace from an outside post that day. He eventually gave way grudgingly to finish third in a good effort. Drops in class and cuts back to a distance that he can handle. Boasts a win over today’s track. He is well drawn towards the inside and should be able to set or stalk the early fractions. Gets a rider switch as well to Lezcano. 2 FRIESAN FIRE7/2 He set a pressured pace and then gave way past midstretch on Feb. 20 at Fair Grounds. The speed closest to the inside, he will be difficult to run down with a clear lead, as evidenced by his frontrunning score at the Fair Grounds on January 23. He has worked remarkably well over the Churchill Downs track, and 1 1/16 miles seems to hit him right between the eyes.3 MACHO AGAIN5/1 Won the Grade 1 Stephen Foster over this track at nine furlongs last year, so this might be nothing more than a ‘prep’ as he makes his 2010 debut. He will need a lively and contentious pace to be at his best. Macho Again adores today’s track and could be ready to roll if things fall his way. Albarado knows him and rides him well. 6 BULLSBAY6/1 Returns to defend his title. Certainly was not disgraced in the Clark H. last November at CD, and was a good fourth behind the third choice in the previously mentioned Stephen Foster. He has also shown an affinity for Churchill in the past. That, coupled with the fact he can fire his best shot when fresh makes him an obvious danger
10th CD 1 1/16m (Turf) Grade II 3yo, Purse: $175,000. ( 4:47)/ 3:47/ 2:47/ 1:47
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 10-11-12) # HorseML Wizard Comments11 WORKIN FOR HOPS12/1 Risks his unbeaten streak on the grass shipping into Churchill. Manhandled the opposition despite the jump into stakes company at FG on March 27. He seized command when ready in the stretch and was never seriously challenged late. Takes the acid test for class as he meets graded stakes company. A 1 1/16 appears to be well within his scope, and he possesses fine tactical speed to overcome a tough outside post. Hernandez seems to know him and ride him well.7 ASPHALT12/1 Set very quick and pressured fractions at GP on March 6, and understandably gave way in the stretch. Could possibly be taken off-the-pace today with a jockey switch to Julien Leparoux, who rode him to a determined come-from-behind victory on January 13, his first start in 2010. He has been firing on all cylinders on the turf at Kee. of late. A cut back to 8.5F should help as well. 6 DOUBLES PARTNER10/1 His synthetic experiment was a huge bust in the Grade 2 Lanes End on March 27 at Turfway Park. Previously, he won both starts on grass, one of which occurred over this turf course last fall. The hood comes off, and jockey Garrett Gomez goes on. A more characteristic type performance is anticipated on his preferred surface off a well-deserved rest.4 LOST APTITUDE3/1 Simply throw out his last over the main track at GP on Feb. 20 behind Eskendereya. Trainer Dale Romans has regrouped with him in an attempt to recapture his sparkling grass form as a juvenile. He is 2 for 2 at CD, and has shown an ability to either set or force the pace. Dangerous tactical speed, a good inside post and Kent D. Race Notes: OFF THE TURF: (1) SETSUKO (10) MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (11) WORKIN FOR HOPS)
11th CD 1 1/8m Grade I 3yo Fillies, Purse: $500,000. ( 5:45)/ 4:45/ 3:45/ 2:45
Oaks-derby Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta,oaks-woodford-derby Pick 3 # HorseML Wizard Comments5 BLIND LUCK6/5 5 - An obvious selection, Blind Luck was a going away winner in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park on April 2. She settled suddenly past midstretch to collar the leader, and then drew clear late to score by 2 1/2 widening lengths. That effort gave every impression she will relish today’s nine furlong distance. She has trained steadily in the interim at her California home base for a sharp ship-in trainer in the form of Jerry Hollendorfer. Gets pace to close into with Bejarano. 3 QUIET TEMPER10/1 Came away with a hard-fought half-length victory on March 26 in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. She responded well to off-the-pace tactics that day, proving best in the stretch by a half-length. Can enjoy yet another similar trip from a good post switching to Churchill and stretching out a bit in distance as well with Albarado.1 IT'S TEA TIME15/1 Tough luck loser April 3, finishing gamely to just miss by a neck despite trouble in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes, albeit over Polytrack. Has a pedigree to handle the switch to ‘real’ dirt for trainer Rusty Arnold, and 1 1/8 miles should certainly favor her.13 AMEN HALLELUJAH8/1 Finished second behind Devil May Care under these conditions at GP on March 20. She was clearly second best that day and has demonstrated an ability to stalk and/or rate from off-the-pace. Has enough tactical speed to get a good early position heading into the first turn with Leparoux.
12th CD 6f MdnSpWt 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $48,000. ( 6:21)/ 5:21/ 4:21/ 3:21
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Super Hi-5 # HorseML Wizard Comments8 READY TO SING2/1 Tries to avenge a heartbreaking loss in her most recent start at the Fair Grounds. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!! 10 BIALY3/1 Has the look of a perennial bridesmaid in the making. Had no excuse on March 21 as the odds-on favorite at Gulfstream Park, finishing second yet again. Has fine tactical speed and a good post to sit a perfect outside trip yet again at short odds. 1 ASH ZEE6/1 Begins career. A first timer from Asmussen for a very high-profile owner. Purchased for $375,000 as a yearling. Both her sire and dam are quite proficient with debut runners. Sports a steady stream of well-spaced works which date back to mid-March. Comes equipped with Lasix and Bridgmohan. 3 WYN JYM15/1 Returns. Was not beaten all that badly last year at Keeneland. Trainer David Carroll elects to try her over a conventional dirt surface for her second career outing. Exhibits a get-reacquainted gate work this month at the Churchill Downs training center. Jockey Miguel Mena climbs aboard today.
#9 TWELVE PACK SHELLY (Race 7) Is the only member of this field, excluding the two first time starters, who is not coming into this race off a win over the Polytrack at Keeneland. This 2yo Pennsylvania bred crushed a maiden special weights field at Laurel by nearly 11 lengths in very fast time. Trainer John Salzman, Jr. is a 25% trainer and he doesn't ship all the way from his Midatlantic base unless he feels he has a huge chance. Her dirt experience can be the difference in this field, and Salzman brings along his rider Harry Vega for good measure. One to beat.
#6 SILVER TIMBER (Race 8) Quickly regained his sharp past form when he was claimed off top turf sprint trainer Linda Rice last April at Gulfstream Park. Trainer Chad Brown was rewarded with a sharp win against state-bred allowance company which then led to a start in the G3 Jaipur at Belmont. The gelding did not disappoint, rolling to a 1 1/2 length win. Two races later he captured the G3 Woodford at Keeneland over a course labeled "soft." He was a contender in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint next out, but a terrible inside post eliminated any chance he had. Showed he was still in sharp form for Brown barn with an impressive win at Keeneland in his first start of this year. He'll have to spot weight to this field because of all this success, but I believe this 7yo gelding is one of the best turf sprinters in the land. Julien Leparoux is back aboard.
#8 READY TO SING (Race 12) Dueled through a very fast pace in her debut at Fair Grounds earlier this year and yielded late in the stretch for a decent 4th place finish. She returned for her second start on Feb. 20 and again faced a fast pace scenario. This time she rated right off the early lead set by the eventual winner, took dead aim on the rival in the stretch, and narrowly lost the bob at the wire. That rival returned to run a great 2nd in a graded stakes next out and is in today's G1 Kentucky Oaks feature. This More Than Ready filly was given time to recover from that race and has been working extremely well at Keeneland in preparation for her return. I believe she is ready to run another big race, and it doesn't hurt that she picks up the services of Julien Leparoux for this start.
EVERY EFFORT WAS MADE TO ENSURE ACCURACY OF PROGRAM NUMBERS. PLEASE CONFIRM BEFORE WAGERING.
1st CD 7f Alw 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $52,500. (10:30)/ 9:30/ 8:30/ 7:30
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 1-2-3) # HorseML Wizard Comments4 FORTUNE PLAY8/1 Returns to the track where one of her two career victories occurred last November in a MSW contest. Regressed chasing fast fractions at Oaklawn Park on March 27. Has been freshened a bit since. Should benefit from a softer pace scenario as well today and drops. Sports a maintenance-type drill in the interim reuniting with Thompson.7 YONAKEE6/1 Exits a swiftly paced race at Oaklawn on March 31 off nearly a two-month break. Raced evenly from an outside post and finished with interest late that day. Projects to move forward off that comeback effort. Has been sharpened for speed in the AM over today’s track. Draws a better post at 7F with Theriot.2 RAVI'S SONG2/1 Returns. Has not been sighted since a good 2nd-place finish in the Prairie Meadows Oaks last September. Both of her wins have come over a middle-distance of ground. May ultimately need more real estate for a top effort. Has been training steadily for her comeback since late January. Drops and gets F. C. Torres.
2nd CD 1m MdnSpWt 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $48,000. (11:00)/10:00/ 9:00/ 8:00
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 2-3-4),pick 4 (2-3-4-5) # HorseML Wizard Comments7 AZURITE7/2 Encouraging debut effort at Fair Grounds on March 13. Closed willingly late to take down the place. Well-spotted for her 2nd lifetime start. Trainer David Carroll’s runners tend to move forward off their initial effort. Has been working steadily since arriving at Churchill. Gets off the rail as Mena climbs back aboard again. Stretches out in distance. 2 ISLAND BOUND6/1 Improved 2nd at Gulfstream Park on March 31 in 2nd start. Raced evenly for the place behind a daylight winner. An obvious threat with another move forward while making her Churchill Downs debut. Sports a ‘sneaky-good’ 5F prep breeze on April 19 over today’s track. Gets a rider change to Julien Leparoux to complete a potent trainer-jock combo.1 RIGAMARO6/1 Ran creditably to finish 2nd on April 10 at Oaklawn when hammered down on the tote to odds of 2-1. Her late rally came up short in a useful effort. Near-bullet speed sharpening gate work on April 25 hints at another good showing with a clean getaway from the rail. Gets an upgrade in riders to the New York-based Rajiv Maragh. 11 SMARTY'S DREAM9/2 Showed surprise speed when turning back to a sprint over Polytrack at Kee. on April 2. She moved to challenge between horses and finished second despite a bumping incident. One turn appears to be her game. Has run well over a conventional dirt surface in the past with Robby Albarado.
3rd CD 1m (Turf) MdnSpWt 3yo and up, Purse: $48,000. (11:30)/10:30/ 9:30/ 8:30
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 3-4-5) # HorseML Wizard Comments3 QUICK DELIVERY7/2 Returns to the grass. He was beaten a short head in his well bet/well meant turf debut at FG on March 7. Gomez got to know him in his last start, and both horse and rider should benefit from that race, especially with today’s change in venue. Has tactical speed to sit a good inside trip drawing an advantageous post.10 HYBRID9/2 Improved his position in his unveiling at Keeneland without threatening on April 3. Stretches-out and switches to the lawn with a pedigree to handle both changes. Trainer Kenny McPeek does well with first-timers on the grass and with runners making their 2nd career start as well. Partners once again with jockey Robby Albarado. 1 SPOON RIVER LEW30/1 Throw-out his most recent effort at Kee. over Polytrack, a surface he did not appear to handle. Showed improvement in an even fourth-place finish on grass at FG in his prior start. A smart 5F breeze at CD on April 22 hints at a dramatic turnaround today. The rail and a flat mile should only enhance his chances.5 BELGRAVE SQUARE5/1 Gets a trainer change to Joe Woodard off a private purchase. Has shown marked improvement since blinkers were added this winter at Tampa. Steps up in sharp form for new connections. Has demonstrated an ability to set or stalk the early pace. Should benefit from one of the top grass riders around in Jose Lezcano.Race Notes: OFF THE TURF: (3) QUICK DELIVERY (10) HYBRID (5) BELGRAVE SQUARE (7) BIRD EMPIRE
4th CD 6fAlwOClm $75,000 3yo Fillies, Purse: $50,000. (12:05)/11:05/10:05/ 9:05
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 4-5-6),pick 4 (races 4-5-6-7) # HorseML Wizard Comments11 FUZZY BRITCHES5/2 Takes a precipitous class drop while being entered for a selling price today. This Aqu. stakes winner regressed badly in a Grade 3 event on March 20, finishing an even fourth. Should relish today’s softer competition and projects to sit closer to the front if on her game. Has worked twice since and gets California-based Joel Rosario.4 ELUSIVE JOZI10/1 Has been over-matched since her gritty MSW victory at the Fair Grounds on December 19. Today, she gets some much-needed class relief and returns to the distance of her maiden score. She has handled the quirky Churchill Downs surface in the morning and projects to be on, or at least near the lead turning back to six furlongs.5 GLOWING REPORT15/1 Chased a pedestrian pace in the Grade 2 Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland and then succumbed readily to finish a well-beaten fourth. Takes a smart drop to face preliminary Allowance runners over a traditional dirt surface and reunites with jockey Terry Thompson, all of which are definite pluses. Has the speed to lead on the drop. 6 MALLORY SQUARE6/1 Good second for new trainer Gerry Carwood, albeit over a synthetic surface on April 11. Change in race, closed from off-the-pace for the place in Lexington, which was only her second start with blinkers on. Might just revert back to pace-pressing tactics today in her second effort with Maragh aboard.
5th CD 1m (Turf) AlwOClm $80,000 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $55,000. (12:43)/11:43/10:43/ 9:43
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 5-6-7) # HorseML Wizard Comments5 FLAMING SLEW12/1 Obviously something was amiss on Nov. 25. She barely lifted a hoof that day, and was immediately placed on-the-shelf. She was never off-the-board in four prior efforts over Churchill grass, and looks well-spotted to get back on track today. Has the ability to either leave or rate, and can put forth a top effort when fresh with Maragh climbing aboard. 3 MISSIT4/1 Gets a trainer change to Attfield who is is excellant with grass horses and horses coming off the layoff. Versatile runner is fond of today's 1 mile distance. Good post. Smith back aboard.11 DANZON7/2 Back on grass and down in class for trainer Kellyn Gorder. Narrowly missed annexing an overnight stakes contest at Turfway on March 27. Prior stakes winner on turf might have lost a step or two on grass, but she is fits well in today’s high-end optional claiming affair. Should get pace to run at with Johnny V. getting the call.4 FOREST TRAIL4/1 Could have been a tad short off a brief respite on April 9 at Keeneland. She rallied willingly while a bit wide in the lane, but was a bit one-paced late. Will obviously be much fitter today. Might also prefer to sit a bit closer to the front, and draws a better post for pace-pressing tactics. Leparoux has the call once more. Race Notes: OFF THE TURF13) MULTIPASS (2) SUSIES GAL (11) DANZON
6th CD 1 1/16m Grade II 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $400,000. ( 1:26)/12:26/11:26/10:26
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 6-7-8),pick 6 (6-7-8-9-10-11) # HorseML Wizard Comments4 RACHEL ALEXANDRA3/5 The 2009 Horse of the Year returns to the site of one her greatest triumphs. “Rachel” literally vanquished an overmatched field in last year’s Kentucky Oaks at Churchill, a race which seemed to propel her to even greater heights. She now attempts to regain some lost luster which came with a defeat at the Fair Grounds on March 13. A race she obviously needed off a long break, she was valiant in defeat nevertheless, but was unable to repel the late charge of the eventual winner, Zardana. She appears poised to exact her revenge against that rival today, as the Steve Asmussen trained four-year-old filly has been firing on all cylinders of late at CD. Borel takes his usual seat aboard the filly for her Ky. return.3 ZARDANA3/1 Dispensed a gritty and career best effort heading East on March 13 to take the measure of Rachel Alexandra, coming off a long layoff as well that day. Trainer John Shireffs will attempt to capture ‘lightning in a bottle’ a second time; but faces an uphill battle today despite getting additional weight from the odds-on favorite over her ‘home track’.2 MORENA20/1 Has yet to win since arriving in the U.S., but has run creditably on several occasions. One of those aforementioned efforts was a second-place finish last fall in the Fall City Handicap over today’s track. Appears likely to garner a minor award again, switching back to the main track while reuniting with Jose Lezcano
7th CD 5f Grade III 2yo, Purse: $100,000. ( 2:10)/ 1:10/12:10/11:10
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 7-8-9) # HorseML Wizard Comments9 TWELVE PACK SHELLY3/1 Gave no one a chance in her debut, and looks to be on the brink of doing the same again today. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!! 7 NINA FEVER5/2 Facile winner in quick time in her well bet/well meant debut at Keeneland on April 3, drawing away with complete authority late. She must still prove that she is capable of reproducing a similar effort over a conventional dirt track for trainer Wesley Ward, who excels with young runners. Albarado stays here. 6 FINAL MESA7/2 Makes up the second-half of the uncoupled Wesley Ward entry. She also ‘whistled’ in her unveiling as a much-the-best winner at Keeneland. Handled dirt in the AM in Florida prior to her blow-out victory. Loses Albarado to the second-choice, but adds a capable replacement in Joel Rosario 3 WETZEL5/1 Game win to begin her career at Kee. on April 2. This homebred runner has since been turned over to Richard Dutrow Jr. Appears to have landed in a tough spot for her first race vs. winners. Rider change to Bejarano.
8th CD 5f (Turf) Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $100,000. ( 3:04)/ 2:04/ 1:04/12:04
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 8-9-10),pick 4 (8-9-10-11) # HorseML Wizard Comments6 SILVER TIMBER2/1 Attempts to keep an his record unblemished in 2010 for trainer Chad Brown. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL! 3 CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE5/2 Exits the same race as the first selection. He chased the pace that day despite being pinned down on the inside early on. He continued on willingly when changing lanes in the stretch, even though he bumped another rival as a result. Gets off the rail. Has never lost over the Churchill Downs turf course in three lifetime starts. Theriot rides him back.7 STARFISH BAY7/2 A girl amongst boys, she easily dispatched an overmatched field in very fast time at GP on Feb. 21. Some of her best races have been when fresh, and she certainly does not have to carry her racetrack around with her. Dangerous wire-to-wire threat if able to clear this field early on. Trainer Todd Pletcher switches to main rider John Velazquez. 1 MORALIST15/1 Took down the show behind the top pick on April 10, stepping up in class/switching back to the weeds. He set a pressured pace and then tired slowly late to finish third, acquitting himself quite well in defeat. Has demonstrated in the past that he can win without the lead. Reunites with Brandon Meier, who was aboard for his most recent win. Race Notes: OFF THE TURF: (9) FORMIDABLE (4) HEAVENLY CHORUS (1) MORALIST (10) CENTRAL CITY
9th CD 1 1/16m Grade III 3yo and up, Purse: $150,000. ( 3:54)/ 2:54/ 1:54/12:54
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 9-10-11) # HorseML Wizard Comments4 COOL COAL MAN4/1 Tough task at Gulfstream Park on March 13. Forced/set a hot pace from an outside post that day. He eventually gave way grudgingly to finish third in a good effort. Drops in class and cuts back to a distance that he can handle. Boasts a win over today’s track. He is well drawn towards the inside and should be able to set or stalk the early fractions. Gets a rider switch as well to Lezcano. 2 FRIESAN FIRE7/2 He set a pressured pace and then gave way past midstretch on Feb. 20 at Fair Grounds. The speed closest to the inside, he will be difficult to run down with a clear lead, as evidenced by his frontrunning score at the Fair Grounds on January 23. He has worked remarkably well over the Churchill Downs track, and 1 1/16 miles seems to hit him right between the eyes.3 MACHO AGAIN5/1 Won the Grade 1 Stephen Foster over this track at nine furlongs last year, so this might be nothing more than a ‘prep’ as he makes his 2010 debut. He will need a lively and contentious pace to be at his best. Macho Again adores today’s track and could be ready to roll if things fall his way. Albarado knows him and rides him well. 6 BULLSBAY6/1 Returns to defend his title. Certainly was not disgraced in the Clark H. last November at CD, and was a good fourth behind the third choice in the previously mentioned Stephen Foster. He has also shown an affinity for Churchill in the past. That, coupled with the fact he can fire his best shot when fresh makes him an obvious danger
10th CD 1 1/16m (Turf) Grade II 3yo, Purse: $175,000. ( 4:47)/ 3:47/ 2:47/ 1:47
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (races 10-11-12) # HorseML Wizard Comments11 WORKIN FOR HOPS12/1 Risks his unbeaten streak on the grass shipping into Churchill. Manhandled the opposition despite the jump into stakes company at FG on March 27. He seized command when ready in the stretch and was never seriously challenged late. Takes the acid test for class as he meets graded stakes company. A 1 1/16 appears to be well within his scope, and he possesses fine tactical speed to overcome a tough outside post. Hernandez seems to know him and ride him well.7 ASPHALT12/1 Set very quick and pressured fractions at GP on March 6, and understandably gave way in the stretch. Could possibly be taken off-the-pace today with a jockey switch to Julien Leparoux, who rode him to a determined come-from-behind victory on January 13, his first start in 2010. He has been firing on all cylinders on the turf at Kee. of late. A cut back to 8.5F should help as well. 6 DOUBLES PARTNER10/1 His synthetic experiment was a huge bust in the Grade 2 Lanes End on March 27 at Turfway Park. Previously, he won both starts on grass, one of which occurred over this turf course last fall. The hood comes off, and jockey Garrett Gomez goes on. A more characteristic type performance is anticipated on his preferred surface off a well-deserved rest.4 LOST APTITUDE3/1 Simply throw out his last over the main track at GP on Feb. 20 behind Eskendereya. Trainer Dale Romans has regrouped with him in an attempt to recapture his sparkling grass form as a juvenile. He is 2 for 2 at CD, and has shown an ability to either set or force the pace. Dangerous tactical speed, a good inside post and Kent D. Race Notes: OFF THE TURF: (1) SETSUKO (10) MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (11) WORKIN FOR HOPS)
11th CD 1 1/8m Grade I 3yo Fillies, Purse: $500,000. ( 5:45)/ 4:45/ 3:45/ 2:45
Oaks-derby Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta,oaks-woodford-derby Pick 3 # HorseML Wizard Comments5 BLIND LUCK6/5 5 - An obvious selection, Blind Luck was a going away winner in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park on April 2. She settled suddenly past midstretch to collar the leader, and then drew clear late to score by 2 1/2 widening lengths. That effort gave every impression she will relish today’s nine furlong distance. She has trained steadily in the interim at her California home base for a sharp ship-in trainer in the form of Jerry Hollendorfer. Gets pace to close into with Bejarano. 3 QUIET TEMPER10/1 Came away with a hard-fought half-length victory on March 26 in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks. She responded well to off-the-pace tactics that day, proving best in the stretch by a half-length. Can enjoy yet another similar trip from a good post switching to Churchill and stretching out a bit in distance as well with Albarado.1 IT'S TEA TIME15/1 Tough luck loser April 3, finishing gamely to just miss by a neck despite trouble in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes, albeit over Polytrack. Has a pedigree to handle the switch to ‘real’ dirt for trainer Rusty Arnold, and 1 1/8 miles should certainly favor her.13 AMEN HALLELUJAH8/1 Finished second behind Devil May Care under these conditions at GP on March 20. She was clearly second best that day and has demonstrated an ability to stalk and/or rate from off-the-pace. Has enough tactical speed to get a good early position heading into the first turn with Leparoux.
12th CD 6f MdnSpWt 3yo and up Fillies and Mares , Purse: $48,000. ( 6:21)/ 5:21/ 4:21/ 3:21
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 Min. Superfecta / Super Hi-5 # HorseML Wizard Comments8 READY TO SING2/1 Tries to avenge a heartbreaking loss in her most recent start at the Fair Grounds. READ THE CRYSTAL BALL!!! 10 BIALY3/1 Has the look of a perennial bridesmaid in the making. Had no excuse on March 21 as the odds-on favorite at Gulfstream Park, finishing second yet again. Has fine tactical speed and a good post to sit a perfect outside trip yet again at short odds. 1 ASH ZEE6/1 Begins career. A first timer from Asmussen for a very high-profile owner. Purchased for $375,000 as a yearling. Both her sire and dam are quite proficient with debut runners. Sports a steady stream of well-spaced works which date back to mid-March. Comes equipped with Lasix and Bridgmohan. 3 WYN JYM15/1 Returns. Was not beaten all that badly last year at Keeneland. Trainer David Carroll elects to try her over a conventional dirt surface for her second career outing. Exhibits a get-reacquainted gate work this month at the Churchill Downs training center. Jockey Miguel Mena climbs aboard today.
<table id="post7839954" class="tborder" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="thead" style="font-weight: normal; border-width: 1px 0px 1px 1px; border-style: solid none solid solid; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130) -moz-use-text-color rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130);">
04-30-2010, 09:19 AM <!-- / status icon and date --> </td> <td class="thead" style="font-weight: normal; border-width: 1px 1px 1px 0px; border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) rgb(253, 222, 130) -moz-use-text-color;" align="right"> #28 <input name="plist[7839954]" id="plist_7839954" style="vertical-align: middle; padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 5px;" value="0" type="checkbox"> </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td class="alt2" style="border-width: 0px 1px; border-style: none solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color rgb(253, 222, 130);" width="175"> thebman <script type="text/javascript"> vbmenu_register("postmenu_7839954", true); </script>
RX Junior
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Vegas
Posts: 3
</td> <td class="alt1" id="td_post_7839954" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(253, 222, 130);"> <!-- icon and title -->
<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Big Al
Kentucky Derby winner
Lookin at Lucky
</td></tr></tbody></table>
RX Junior
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Vegas
Posts: 3
</td> <td class="alt1" id="td_post_7839954" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(253, 222, 130);"> <!-- icon and title -->
<hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130); background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Big Al
Kentucky Derby winner
Lookin at Lucky
</td></tr></tbody></table>
John Piesen's Full Card for Saturday, May 1
race 1...... 3/2/6
race 2...... 2/4/11
race 3...... 2/4/1
race 4...... 11/7/6
race 5...... 4/11/2
race 6...... 2/4/3 {Eight Belles}
race 7...... 3/5/6 {Churchill Distaff}
race 8...... 3/4/9 {Humana Distaff}
race 9...... 12/3/8 {Churchill Downs}
race 10.... 6/3/5 {Woodford Reserve}
race 11.... 3/1/4/2 {Kentucky Derby}
race 12.... 8/11/7
race 13.... 4/8/9
paid for by me.
race 1...... 3/2/6
race 2...... 2/4/11
race 3...... 2/4/1
race 4...... 11/7/6
race 5...... 4/11/2
race 6...... 2/4/3 {Eight Belles}
race 7...... 3/5/6 {Churchill Distaff}
race 8...... 3/4/9 {Humana Distaff}
race 9...... 12/3/8 {Churchill Downs}
race 10.... 6/3/5 {Woodford Reserve}
race 11.... 3/1/4/2 {Kentucky Derby}
race 12.... 8/11/7
race 13.... 4/8/9
paid for by me.
136TH KENTUCKY DERBY
Steve Davidowitz & David Tuley
The top contenders…
With ESKENDEREYA knocked out of the race last weekend and the 3-1 morning line favorite LOOKIN AT LUCKY drawing the rail, possible favoritism actually may shift to Santa Anita Derby winner SIDNEY'S CANDY despite his outside post draw. There are at least 10 other serious contenders and the rest cannot be eliminated especially if the track comes up wet as expected. The most accomplished are Gotham Stakes winner AWESOME ACT, Florida Derby winner ICE BOX, the talented filly DEVIL MAY CARE, Louisiana Derby winner MISSION IMPAZIBLE, Illinois Derby winner AMERICAN LION, SUPER SAVER, who placed second in the Arkansas Derby, and the 1-2 finishers in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, STATELY VICTOR and PADDY O' PRADO.
How the race will be run…
Several horses clearly prefer to set or press the pace. The two most likely to emerge battling for the lead are Arkansas Derby winner #5 LINE OF DAVID and Southwest Stakes winner #12 CONVEYANCE. But they will have Illinois Derby winner #7 AMERICAN LION, Kentucky Jockey Club winner #4 SUPER SAVER, and Santa Anita Derby winner #20 SIDNEY'S CANDY right behind them, plus a half-dozen more within a few lengths. This adds up to a fast early pace that should favor the come-from-behind horses, and my top four listed below are horses with that type of running style. As stated, more than half the field has a puncher's chance to win.
My picks to win…Steve Davidowitz
With the pace scenario, I slightly prefer the stretch runners who have performed well on dirt tracks in the following order: #16 AWESOME ACT, #2 ICE BOX, #14 MISSION IMPAZIBLE and #1 LOOKIN AT LUCKY. ‘Lucky' is a classy, very game sort whose task was made more difficult by his inside post draw where traffic problems are almost guaranteed. I also like #4 SUPER SAVER to survive the pressurized pace, while #20 SIDNEY'S CANDY is a classy, fast horse destined for a wide trip on the first turn which would compromise his chances. #10 PADDY O' PRADO and #12 CONVEYANCE have both trained superbly at Churchill and may move up on a sloppy track. The filly #11 DEVIL MAY CARE fits well enough, but may be over-bet on sentiment.
My long shot…
There are many with good form at 15-1 and higher, but the well named #4 SUPER SAVER is a legit upset threat. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Super Saver is making his third start off a layoff; he won a graded stakes at Churchill Downs last fall, and looked to be an improving, relaxed horse in each of his local workouts. A sharp second in the Arkansas Derby on a tricky Oaklawn racing surface, Super Saver also won a maiden race by 7 lengths on a very sloppy Belmont Park track last September, which adds to his appeal. I also think that two 50-1 shots, #19 HOMEBOYKRIS and #18 BACKTALK have Grade-1 talent; they have trained forwardly for top-notch horsemen and might pass tired horses to spice up the superfecta. The top contenders…
LOOKIN AT LUCKY, the defending 2-year-old champion, inherits the role of favorite (3-1) with the scratch of Eskendereya. SIDNEY'S CANDY beat LOOKIN AT LUCKY in the Santa Anita Derby. DEVIL MAY CARE is trying to become just the fourth filly to win the Kentucky Derby, which is having its 136th running. AWESOME ACT is the wise-guy horse after finishing third in the Wood Memorial despite stumbling at the start, losing a shoe and having a wide trip. DUBLIN was the early future-book favorite in Vegas last September.
How the race will be run…
There are a ton of horses with early speed, including SUPE SAVER, LINE OF DAVID, AMERICAN LION, CONVEYANCE and DISCREETLY MINE. SIDNEY'S CANDY, another that has shown a tendency to go for the lead, will probably be forced to sit just behind the pacesetters from post No. 20 along with DEAN'S KITTEN, PADDY O'PRADO, DEVIL MAY CARE, JACKSON BEND and HOMEBOYKRIS. LOOKIN AT LUCKY and other closers like ICE BOX, STATELY VICTOR and AWESOME ACT will try to save ground and set up their late runs, hoping the speed backs up. It could be anyone's race at the top of the stretch.
My picks to win… David Tuley
LINE OF DAVID could be the speed of the speed and is my pick to steal the race at 30-1. Unlike some other speed horses in here that have set slow fractions, he has gone very fast early in his races
46 1/5 for a half mile in the Arkansas Derby) and still has enough to hold off closers. The knock on him this week was a slow work on Monday, but he had a slow work prior to his Arkansas Derby win as well and trainer John Sadler usually doesn't work him fast anyway but he still shows up on race day.
SIDNEY'S CANDY has three straight wire-to-wire victories. He's also trained by Sadler, who insists he can rate and come off the pace, which he'll have to do from the far outside post. Like LINE OF DAVID, this horse has also shown the stamina to still be running fast late. I like him best among the top contenders.
LOOKIN AT LUCKY is just a little racing luck away from being 8-for-8 as his only losses were in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Santa Anita Derby. He'll be running at the end. The only question is if he can avoid trouble being pinned on the inside from the No. 1 post position and be able to run down the leaders in the stretch.
My long shot…
HOMEBOYKRIS reminds me of last year's upset winner, Mine That Bird, in that he earned his graded stakes earning as a 2-year-old and hasn't done much since. He comes into the Derby off the longest layoff of anyone in the field, but we've seen young 3-year-olds make vast improvement under such circumstances. That possibility could be worth a flier as he should go off well in excess of his 50-1 morning-line odds.
Steve Davidowitz & David Tuley
The top contenders…
With ESKENDEREYA knocked out of the race last weekend and the 3-1 morning line favorite LOOKIN AT LUCKY drawing the rail, possible favoritism actually may shift to Santa Anita Derby winner SIDNEY'S CANDY despite his outside post draw. There are at least 10 other serious contenders and the rest cannot be eliminated especially if the track comes up wet as expected. The most accomplished are Gotham Stakes winner AWESOME ACT, Florida Derby winner ICE BOX, the talented filly DEVIL MAY CARE, Louisiana Derby winner MISSION IMPAZIBLE, Illinois Derby winner AMERICAN LION, SUPER SAVER, who placed second in the Arkansas Derby, and the 1-2 finishers in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, STATELY VICTOR and PADDY O' PRADO.
How the race will be run…
Several horses clearly prefer to set or press the pace. The two most likely to emerge battling for the lead are Arkansas Derby winner #5 LINE OF DAVID and Southwest Stakes winner #12 CONVEYANCE. But they will have Illinois Derby winner #7 AMERICAN LION, Kentucky Jockey Club winner #4 SUPER SAVER, and Santa Anita Derby winner #20 SIDNEY'S CANDY right behind them, plus a half-dozen more within a few lengths. This adds up to a fast early pace that should favor the come-from-behind horses, and my top four listed below are horses with that type of running style. As stated, more than half the field has a puncher's chance to win.
My picks to win…Steve Davidowitz
With the pace scenario, I slightly prefer the stretch runners who have performed well on dirt tracks in the following order: #16 AWESOME ACT, #2 ICE BOX, #14 MISSION IMPAZIBLE and #1 LOOKIN AT LUCKY. ‘Lucky' is a classy, very game sort whose task was made more difficult by his inside post draw where traffic problems are almost guaranteed. I also like #4 SUPER SAVER to survive the pressurized pace, while #20 SIDNEY'S CANDY is a classy, fast horse destined for a wide trip on the first turn which would compromise his chances. #10 PADDY O' PRADO and #12 CONVEYANCE have both trained superbly at Churchill and may move up on a sloppy track. The filly #11 DEVIL MAY CARE fits well enough, but may be over-bet on sentiment.
My long shot…
There are many with good form at 15-1 and higher, but the well named #4 SUPER SAVER is a legit upset threat. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Super Saver is making his third start off a layoff; he won a graded stakes at Churchill Downs last fall, and looked to be an improving, relaxed horse in each of his local workouts. A sharp second in the Arkansas Derby on a tricky Oaklawn racing surface, Super Saver also won a maiden race by 7 lengths on a very sloppy Belmont Park track last September, which adds to his appeal. I also think that two 50-1 shots, #19 HOMEBOYKRIS and #18 BACKTALK have Grade-1 talent; they have trained forwardly for top-notch horsemen and might pass tired horses to spice up the superfecta. The top contenders…
LOOKIN AT LUCKY, the defending 2-year-old champion, inherits the role of favorite (3-1) with the scratch of Eskendereya. SIDNEY'S CANDY beat LOOKIN AT LUCKY in the Santa Anita Derby. DEVIL MAY CARE is trying to become just the fourth filly to win the Kentucky Derby, which is having its 136th running. AWESOME ACT is the wise-guy horse after finishing third in the Wood Memorial despite stumbling at the start, losing a shoe and having a wide trip. DUBLIN was the early future-book favorite in Vegas last September.
How the race will be run…
There are a ton of horses with early speed, including SUPE SAVER, LINE OF DAVID, AMERICAN LION, CONVEYANCE and DISCREETLY MINE. SIDNEY'S CANDY, another that has shown a tendency to go for the lead, will probably be forced to sit just behind the pacesetters from post No. 20 along with DEAN'S KITTEN, PADDY O'PRADO, DEVIL MAY CARE, JACKSON BEND and HOMEBOYKRIS. LOOKIN AT LUCKY and other closers like ICE BOX, STATELY VICTOR and AWESOME ACT will try to save ground and set up their late runs, hoping the speed backs up. It could be anyone's race at the top of the stretch.
My picks to win… David Tuley
LINE OF DAVID could be the speed of the speed and is my pick to steal the race at 30-1. Unlike some other speed horses in here that have set slow fractions, he has gone very fast early in his races
46 1/5 for a half mile in the Arkansas Derby) and still has enough to hold off closers. The knock on him this week was a slow work on Monday, but he had a slow work prior to his Arkansas Derby win as well and trainer John Sadler usually doesn't work him fast anyway but he still shows up on race day.SIDNEY'S CANDY has three straight wire-to-wire victories. He's also trained by Sadler, who insists he can rate and come off the pace, which he'll have to do from the far outside post. Like LINE OF DAVID, this horse has also shown the stamina to still be running fast late. I like him best among the top contenders.
LOOKIN AT LUCKY is just a little racing luck away from being 8-for-8 as his only losses were in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Santa Anita Derby. He'll be running at the end. The only question is if he can avoid trouble being pinned on the inside from the No. 1 post position and be able to run down the leaders in the stretch.
My long shot…
HOMEBOYKRIS reminds me of last year's upset winner, Mine That Bird, in that he earned his graded stakes earning as a 2-year-old and hasn't done much since. He comes into the Derby off the longest layoff of anyone in the field, but we've seen young 3-year-olds make vast improvement under such circumstances. That possibility could be worth a flier as he should go off well in excess of his 50-1 morning-line odds.
BATTAGLIASPICKS
Churchill
OUR BET OF CHOICE Pick three plays: You must have the winner of three races in a row. The way we play is to use all three of our runners in each race. The total ticket price is $27 for a $1 pick three.
You can also play the rolling double. The way to play is use all three of our runners in each race. The total ticket price would be $9 for a $1 double.
Quick Pick three Plays. If you are playing the rolling doubles just use the numbers in (red for each race.)
1st race 6-4-3 with 4-8-3 with 2-7-9
2nd race 4-8-3 with 2-7-9 with 5-2-1
3rd race 2-7-9 with 5-2-1 with 2-4-1
4th race 5-2-1 with 2-4-1 with 2-4-1
5th race 2-4-1 with 2-4-1 with 3-5-6
6th race 2-4-1 with 3-5-6 with 3-1-4
7th race 3-5-6 with 3-1-4 with 12-1-7
8th race 3-1-4 with 12-1-7 with 3-7-1
9th race 12-1-7 with 3-7-1 with 1-2-3-10
10th race 3-7-1 with 1-2-3-10 with 8-7-3
11th race 1-2-3-10 with 8-7-3 with 7-3-6-9
12th race 8-7-3 with 7-3-6-9
NOTE PLAYING THIS WAY IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE IF OUR TOP PICK WINS OR OUR THIRD. WE WANT THE HORSE THAT IS THE BIGGEST PRICE TO WIN.
If you have any questions on how to play the pick three or any questions in general just email me at help@battagliaspicks.com
Thank-you for your business,
Tom Battaglia
Pick four spread tickets. If you were to play 3 horses in each leg of the pick four it would cost you $81.00. Using Spread tickets you cut the price of your ticket down while still giving you several combinations to win.
For more help on our pick four spread tickets click here
To Build Your own pick four, pick three or pick six spread tickets click here
Spread Tickets the pick four races 2-4
Ticket 1
Race 2 : 4 8
Race 3 : 2
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Cost: $12.00 Ticket 2
Race 2 : 3
Race 3 : 2
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Cost: $6.00 Ticket 3
Race 2 : 4 8
Race 3 : 7 9
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Cost: $24.00 Ticket 4
Race 2 : 4 8
Race 3 : 2
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 1
Cost: $6.00
Total Cost of Spread Tickets: $48.00 or $24 for .50 tickets
Spread Tickets for middle pick four races 4-7
Ticket 1
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Race 6 : 2
Race 7 : 3 5
Cost: $12.00 Ticket 2
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 1
Race 6 : 2
Race 7 : 3 5
Cost: $6.00 Ticket 3
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Race 6 : 1 4
Race 7 : 3 5
Cost: $24.00 Ticket 4
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Race 6 : 2
Race 7 : 6
Cost: $6.00
Total Cost of Spread Tickets: $48.00 or $24 for .50 tickets
Spread Tickets for late pick four races 8-11
Ticket 1
Race 8 : 3
Race 9 : 12 1
Race 10 : 3
Race 11 : 1 2 3 10
Cost: $8.00 Ticket 2
Race 8 : 1 4
Race 9 : 12 1
Race 10 : 3
Race 11 : 1 2 3 10
Cost: $16.00 Ticket 3
Race 8 : 3
Race 9 : 7
Race 10 : 3
Race 11 : 1 2 3 10
Cost: $4.00 Ticket 4
Race 8 : 3
Race 9 : 12 1
Race 10 : 1 7
Race 11 : 1 2 3 10
Cost: $16.00 Ticket 5
Race 8 : 3
Race 9 : 12 1
Race 10 : 3
Race 11 : 20 13 16
Cost: $6.00
Total Cost of Spread Tickets: $50.00 or $25 for .50 tickets
BET ON Churchill!
Up to 5% back on your bets
Future and prop betting
Fast Signups and Deposits
80 plus tracks including Gulfstream Park
Open an Account and get a 10% bonus
Bet on the Kentucky Derby!
Experience the thrill of horse racing at the Bodog Racebook! With payouts up to $50,000, you can bet on races at over 80 tracks worldwide. It's easy and exciting!
Get up to 5% cash back on your bets
Receive a 10% cash bonus on your initial deposit of $20 or more
Get your bonus now click here
Great Race
Good Race
Decent Race
Weak Race
Bad Race
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Jump to race: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13
1st (Post time 10:30)
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance Optional Claiming ($100,000) | Purse: $52,500
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Rock Hard Mena M Barnett Bobby C 118 LA 6-1
2 2 Kettle River Nakatani C S Harty Eoin 118 LA 3-1
3 3 Vow to Wager Bejarano R Romans Dale 118 LA 4-1
4 4 Broken Tango Garcia M Baffert Bob 120 LA 4-1
5 5 The Peloton Lezcano J Ryan Derek S 120 LA 8-1
6 6 Stay Put Theriot H J II Margolis Steve 118 LA 2-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Battagliaspicks 6-4-3
#6 Stay Put- trainer is having a huge year winning with 32% of his runners. He sent this colt to work twice on a muddy track and he shows winning over a wet track at FG. He is coming off two strong runs in grade III's and has the edge on class.
2nd (11:00)
1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $48,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Bad Brad Straight M Bryant Donald L 118 L 20-1
2 2 Bold Victory Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 118 LA 7-2
3 3 Zimmer Borel C H Byrne Patrick B 125 Blk-On L 7-2
4 4 Spicer Leparoux J R Nafzger Carl A 118 L 3-1
5 5 Mo'millions Creed B Stevens Lowell T 113 5 LA 20-1
6 6 L. C. Daytona Dominguez R A Maker Michael J 118 12-1
7 7 My Piano Man Graham J Nicks Ralph E 118 L 10-1
8 8 Henceforth Albarado R J Stewart Dallas 118 Blk-On L 5-1
9 9 Sneaky Dreams Farina T Hall Will 125 L 20-1
10 10 Win It Gonzalez S Jr Jackson Helmut S 118 LA 50-1
11 11 Raphael Alexandro Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 118 LA 6-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Battagliaspicks 4-8-3
#4 Spicer- Runs for two time Derby winning trainer and is coming off a strong tune up sprinting at KEE. He has a fast work here in the mud and should blow by these at this longer distance.
3rd (11:30)
1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $48,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Dyani Lanerie C J Kenneally Eddie 125 LA 9-2
2 2 C. S. Royce Gomez G K Romans Dale 118 LA 4-1
3 3 Dandyna Nakatani C S Howard Neil J 118 L 20-1
4 4 Circleboundbay Albarado R J McPeek Kenneth G 118 LA 6-1
5 5 Lemonappeal Maragh R Pitts Helen 118 LA 15-1
6 6 Wicked Ravnina Dominguez R A Maker Michael J 118 LA 12-1
7 7 Heart Union Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 118 L 8-1
8 8 Arrowcourse Borel C H Wilkes Ian R 118 L 15-1
9 9 Poplar Girl Torres F C Tomlinson Michael A 125 LA 20-1
10 10 Kathern's Kitten Lezcano J Brown Chad C 118 LA 15-1
11 11 Sheryl's Melody Desormeaux K J Stewart Dallas 118 L 10-1
12 12 Beyond Our Reach (IRE) Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 125 LA 7-2
13 AE Stormy Tess Borel C H Million William N 118 A 30-1
14 AE Flirty Girty Theriot H J II Nicks Ralph E 118 L 10-1
15 AE Go Button Hernandez B J Jr Pitts Helen 118 L 20-1
16 AE Too Divine Court J K Fires William H 125 LA 15-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Battagliaspicks 2-7-9
#2 C. C. Royce- finished second on the dirt here and on the turf. She is coming off a good effort at GP and Gomez is out ridding them all.
4th (12:04)
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance Optional Claiming ($75,000) | Purse: $50,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Flatter Than Me Hernandez B J Jr Scherer Merrill R 118 LA 8-1
2 2 New Pais Desormeaux K J McCauley Tevis Q 122 LA 5-1
3 3 Havelock Bejarano R Miller Darrin 118 LA 10-1
4 4 Bravo Whiskey Albarado R J Howard Neil J 118 L 15-1
5 5 Good Lord Allen R D Jr Kaelin Forrest 118 L 5-1
6 6 Via Verde Talamo J Sadler John W 118 LA 7-2
7 7 Spooky's Ready Borel C H Borel Cecil P 118 LA 8-1
8 8 Macjoey Nakatani C S Asmussen Steven M 122 LA 10-1
9 9 Don't Put It Back Sterling L J Jr Foley Vickie L 118 $75,000 LA 6-1
10 10 Nateman Graham J Werner Ronny 118 LA 30-1
11 11 Wise Dan Leparoux J R Lopresti Charles 118 LA 9-2
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Battagliaspicks 5-2-1
#5 Good Lord- Very good field of well matched sprinters. This trainer has always been underrated but we have never seen him lose a bet. He has a good work, has two wins to the others one, won here in NOV on a deep muddy track and looks like the one to beat.
5th (12:38)
1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance Optional Claiming ($80,000) | Purse: $55,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Southern Exchange Leparoux J R Dutrow, Jr. R E 121 L 15-1
2 2 Utterly Cool Albarado R J Thornbury Jeffrey D 121 L 6-1
3 3 Rogue Victory Desormeaux K J Weaver George 121 LA 4-1
4 4 Hymn Book Castellano J J McGaughey III C R 121 L 3-1
5 5 On My Dime Mena M Dollase Wallace 121 $80,000 LA 15-1
6 6 Cherokee Triangle Dominguez R A Maker Michael J 121 $80,000 LA 15-1
7 7 Caberneigh Gomez G K Proctor Thomas F 121 LA 12-1
8 8 Gentleman Chester Graham J Nicks Ralph E 121 LA 15-1
9 9 Mr Maccool Torres F C Ball Katherine 121 LA 30-1
10 10 Silver Mountain Lezcano J Proctor Thomas F 121 LA 5-1
11 11 Pickapocket Bridgmohan S X Margolis Steve 121 $80,000 LA 6-1
12 12 Anarko (CHI) Lanerie C J Seitz Frederick J 121 $80,000 L 12-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Battagliaspicks 2-4-1
#2 Utterly Cool- won his first three starts on the grass by a total of 22 lengths including a big stake. He was off for 13 months, opened up on the lead but tired late in a needed race and was only beaten 2 lengths by a repeat stakes winner. He loves a soft course and will be hard to beat at a good price.
6th (1:19)
Eight Belles S. (G3)
7 1/2 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Buckleupbuttercup Leparoux J R Kenneally Eddie 118 LA 8-1
2 2 Hot Dixie Chick Albarado R J Asmussen Steven M 122 LA 1-1
3 3 Bell's Shoes Borel C H Fires William H 116 LA 6-1
4 4 Decelerator Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 120 LA 7-2
5 5 Sister Resistor Bejarano R Dutrow, Jr. R E 116 L 12-1
6 6 Kantstopdancin Farina T Hall Will 116 L 30-1
7 7 Visavis Bridgmohan S X Margolis Steve 116 LA 4-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Pick 6 (Races 6-11)
Battagliaspicks 2-4-1
#2 Hot Dixie Chick- very fast filly won here by 6 then headed to SAR and won a grade III and a grade I. She stayed in training and began this year with a 6 length score at OP on a wet track. Her works are great and she is the one to beat.
7th (2:08)
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. (G2)
1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Miss Keller (IRE) Castellano J J Attfield Roger L 118 LA 10-1
2 2 Phola Dominguez R A Pletcher Todd A 118 LA 7-2
3 3 Fantasia (GB) Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 118 L 5-1
4 4 Hooh Why Allen R D Jr Hoffman Mark 118 L 8-1
5 5 Tizaqueena Gomez G K Stidham Michael 118 LA 5-2
6 6 Hot Cha Cha Graham J Sims Phillip A 118 LA 3-1
7 7 Diamondrella (GB) Albarado R J Corrigan Jim 118 LA 8-1
8 8 Cure for Sale (ARG) Alvarado J Malek Raja 118 LA 15-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Battagliaspicks 3-5-6
#3 Fantasia (GB)- Classy graded winner in Europe shipped over to join the Sheppard barn and there is no better turf trainer in the US. He missed by a neck after rallying late on a speed favoring track. He will score like a best bet should
8th (2:59)
Humana Distaff S. (G1)
7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $300,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Dr. Zic Desormeaux K J Scott Joan 124 L 9-2
2 2 Warbling Dominguez R A Kenneally Eddie 122 LA 8-1
3 3 Informed Decision Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 124 L 2-1
4 4 Dubai Majesty Theriot H J II Calhoun W. B 118 LA 6-1
5 5 Double Espresso Graham J Amoss Thomas 118 L 30-1
6 6 Pretty Prolific Albarado R J Baker James E 120 LA 20-1
7 7 Cassidys Pride Lezcano J Estevez Manuel A 118 LA 12-1
8 8 Rated Fiesty Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 118 LA 12-1
9 9 Free Flying Soul Smith M E Headley Bruce 118 L 6-1
10 10 Mona de Momma Rosario J Sadler John W 120 LA 6-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) Pick 4 (Races 8-9-10-11) / Daily Double
Battagliaspicks 3-1-4
#3 Informed Decision- won 9 of her last 10 races including this stake here last year. She looked beaten here after being blocked and forced to check but Leparoux got her going again and she got up on the wire. She is as game as they come and these do not look good enough to beat her.
9th (3:52)
Churchill Downs S. (G2)
7 Furlongs | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Munnings Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 7-2
2 2 Country Day Hernandez B J Jr Margolis Steve 118 LA 15-1
3 3 Wall Street Wonder Hill C Terranova, II John P 120 LA 12-1
4 4 Victory Notion McKee J Talley Jeff 118 LA 50-1
5 5 Hamazing Destiny Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 118 LA 20-1
6 6 Hull Bridgmohan S X Romans Dale 118 LA 12-1
7 7 Warrior's Reward Leparoux J R Wilkes Ian R 124 L 4-1
8 8 Ventana Gomez G K Baffert Bob 122 LA 8-1
9 9 Atta Boy Roy Borel C H Lund Valorie 118 LA 20-1
10 10 Cool Coal Man Lezcano J Zito Nicholas P 118 LA 12-1
11 11 Kensei Albarado R J Asmussen Steven M 118 LA 10-1
12 12 Musket Man Dominguez R A Ryan Derek S 118 LA 3-1
13 13 Accredit Garcia Alan Maker Michael J 118 LA 20-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11)
Battagliaspicks 12-1-7
#12 Musket Man- Finished 3rd beaten a nose for second a year ago in the KY Derby to Mine That Bird. He then finished less then 2 lengths behind Rachel in the Preakness. He came back 9 months later and won in near track record time and after another two month break was beaten a nose in the grade I Carter at AQ again just missing the track record. He comes to this race ready for his best and will be hard to beat.
10th (4:46)
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. (G1)
1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Wise River Borel C H Hanna Clark 117 LA 15-1
2 2 General Quarters Bejarano R McCarthy Thomas R 119 L 8-1
3 3 Court Vision Albarado R J Dutrow, Jr. R E 124 L 9-5
4 4 Pop Tarrt Gonzalez S Jr Deegan Joseph C 117 L 30-1
5 5 Al Khali Desormeaux K J Mott William I 119 LA 8-1
6 6 Battle of Hastings (GB) Dominguez R A Mullins Jeff 119 LA 5-1
7 7 Blues Street Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 121 LA 6-1
8 8 Loup Breton (IRE) Gomez G K Canani Julio C 121 Blk-Off LA 4-1
9 9 Yate's Black Cat Leparoux J R Romans Dale 117 LA 8-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12) / Pick 4 (Races 10-11-12-13)
Battagliaspicks 3-7-1
#3 Court Vision- ran 3rd behind Einstein and Cowboy Cal in this same race last year. He finds a much easier field today and should get the money.
11th (6:24)
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1)
1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Lookin At Lucky Gomez G K Baffert Bob 126 Blk-Off LA 3-1
2 2 Ice Box Lezcano J Zito Nicholas P 126 LA 10-1
3 3 Noble's Promise Martinez W McPeek Kenneth G 126 LA 12-1
4 4 Super Saver Borel C H Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 15-1
5 5 Line of David Bejarano R Sadler John W 126 LA 30-1
6 6 Stately Victor Garcia Alan Maker Michael J 126 LA 30-1
7 7 American Lion Flores D R Harty Eoin 126 LA 30-1
8 8 Dean's Kitten Albarado R J Maker Michael J 126 LA 50-1
9 9 Make Music for Me Rosario J Barba Alexis 126 LA 50-1
10 10 Paddy O'Prado Desormeaux K J Romans Dale 126 LA 20-1
11 11 Devil May Care Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 121 Blk-On LA 10-1
12 12 Conveyance Garcia M Baffert Bob 126 LA 12-1
13 13 Jackson Bend Smith M E Zito Nicholas P 126 LA 15-1
14 14 Mission Impazible Maragh R Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 20-1
15 15 Discreetly Mine Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 30-1
16 16 Awesome Act Leparoux J R Noseda Jeremy 126 LA 10-1
17 17 Dublin Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 126 LA 12-1
18 18 Backtalk Mena M Amoss Thomas 126 L 50-1
19 19 Homeboykris Dominguez R A Dutrow, Jr. R E 126 L 50-1
20 20 Sidney's Candy Talamo J Sadler John W 126 LA 5-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) / Super Hi-5
Battagliaspicks 1-3-2-10
#1 Lookin at Lucky- We generally hunt for long shots or overlays and Lookin at Lucky closed yesterday at 7-1. He takes the blinkers off, a move we love, especially for the biggest race in the sport and Baffert is one of the sharpest trainers around. Gomez actually swayed our thinking, since coming to KY he has made every body else looks like amateurs. He appears to be on the best horse and we will leave it up to the best rider to find a way from the #1 post to get the job done.
#3 Noble's Promise- Has raced with our top pick in three of his last four races and was beaten a head, 3/4 and a 1/2 a length. He has the highest mud number in the field (463) and the track should be a mess by now. His last race was his worst looking on paper but after watching the tape several times he actually ran a big race. He was slammed at the start and blocked behind horses in the stretch. He will probably be at least twice the price of our top pick and could complete a nice exacta.
12th (7:10)
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance | Purse: $52,500
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 A. U. Miner Desormeaux K J Hanna Clark 122 LA 12-1
2 2 Omniscient Borel C H Asmussen Steven M 120 LA 8-1
3 3 Marquee Event Bridgmohan S X Lovell Michelle 120 LA 6-1
4 4 Devastador Arguello F A Jr Davis Raymond L 120 LA 50-1
5 5 Grand Daddy Lopez J Drury Thomas Jr 120 Blk-On LA 10-1
6 6 Coronet of a Baron Court J K Forster Grant T 120 LA 6-1
7 7 Flying Pegasus Albarado R J Nicks Ralph E 120 LA 6-1
8 8 Handleman Hernandez B J Jr Margolis Steve 120 LA 9-2
9 9 Thunder Jack Mena M Calhoun W. B 116 LA 8-1
10 10 Cape Hatchet Smith M E Woodard Joe 120 LA 20-1
11 11 E Z's Gentleman Garcia M Baffert Bob 122 LA 7-2
12 12 Five Star David Lanerie C J Simms Garry W 116 L 20-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double
Battagliaspicks 8-7-3
#8 Handleman- Fast gelding moves upon a wet track. He will zip to an easy lead and play catch me if you can.
13th (7:40)
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $48,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Thunder Highway Court J K Rogers Eddie 118 LA 30-1
2 2 Irish Emperor Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 118 LA 15-1
3 3 Moe Man Castellano J J Wilkes Ian R 118 L 4-1
4 4 Easy to Please Me Nakatani C S Hendrickson Lori 118 LA 10-1
5 5 Angus Drive Lanerie C J Forster Grant T 118 L 15-1
6 6 Forest Coast Solis A Hanna Clark 118 LA 20-1
7 7 Imperial Pride Talamo J Hess R B Jr 118 L 9-2
8 8 Deets Albarado R J Stewart Dallas 118 L 8-1
9 9 Scary Good Lezcano J Zito Nicholas P 118 LA 3-1
10 10 Galientos Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 118 LA 5-1
11 11 Royal Paddy Mojica R Jr Crawley Galen L 118 20-1
12 12 Mr Ruff McKee J Farmer - Hubbard J 124 L 30-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta
Battagliaspicks 7-3-6-9
#7 Imperial Pride- Limehouse colt ran well on the SA surface finishing second twice even though he has no breeding for anything other then dirt. He gets his chance today and should payoff.
Churchill
OUR BET OF CHOICE Pick three plays: You must have the winner of three races in a row. The way we play is to use all three of our runners in each race. The total ticket price is $27 for a $1 pick three.
You can also play the rolling double. The way to play is use all three of our runners in each race. The total ticket price would be $9 for a $1 double.
Quick Pick three Plays. If you are playing the rolling doubles just use the numbers in (red for each race.)
1st race 6-4-3 with 4-8-3 with 2-7-9
2nd race 4-8-3 with 2-7-9 with 5-2-1
3rd race 2-7-9 with 5-2-1 with 2-4-1
4th race 5-2-1 with 2-4-1 with 2-4-1
5th race 2-4-1 with 2-4-1 with 3-5-6
6th race 2-4-1 with 3-5-6 with 3-1-4
7th race 3-5-6 with 3-1-4 with 12-1-7
8th race 3-1-4 with 12-1-7 with 3-7-1
9th race 12-1-7 with 3-7-1 with 1-2-3-10
10th race 3-7-1 with 1-2-3-10 with 8-7-3
11th race 1-2-3-10 with 8-7-3 with 7-3-6-9
12th race 8-7-3 with 7-3-6-9
NOTE PLAYING THIS WAY IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE IF OUR TOP PICK WINS OR OUR THIRD. WE WANT THE HORSE THAT IS THE BIGGEST PRICE TO WIN.
If you have any questions on how to play the pick three or any questions in general just email me at help@battagliaspicks.com
Thank-you for your business,
Tom Battaglia
Pick four spread tickets. If you were to play 3 horses in each leg of the pick four it would cost you $81.00. Using Spread tickets you cut the price of your ticket down while still giving you several combinations to win.
For more help on our pick four spread tickets click here
To Build Your own pick four, pick three or pick six spread tickets click here
Spread Tickets the pick four races 2-4
Ticket 1
Race 2 : 4 8
Race 3 : 2
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Cost: $12.00 Ticket 2
Race 2 : 3
Race 3 : 2
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Cost: $6.00 Ticket 3
Race 2 : 4 8
Race 3 : 7 9
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Cost: $24.00 Ticket 4
Race 2 : 4 8
Race 3 : 2
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 1
Cost: $6.00
Total Cost of Spread Tickets: $48.00 or $24 for .50 tickets
Spread Tickets for middle pick four races 4-7
Ticket 1
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Race 6 : 2
Race 7 : 3 5
Cost: $12.00 Ticket 2
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 1
Race 6 : 2
Race 7 : 3 5
Cost: $6.00 Ticket 3
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Race 6 : 1 4
Race 7 : 3 5
Cost: $24.00 Ticket 4
Race 4 : 5 2 1
Race 5 : 2 4
Race 6 : 2
Race 7 : 6
Cost: $6.00
Total Cost of Spread Tickets: $48.00 or $24 for .50 tickets
Spread Tickets for late pick four races 8-11
Ticket 1
Race 8 : 3
Race 9 : 12 1
Race 10 : 3
Race 11 : 1 2 3 10
Cost: $8.00 Ticket 2
Race 8 : 1 4
Race 9 : 12 1
Race 10 : 3
Race 11 : 1 2 3 10
Cost: $16.00 Ticket 3
Race 8 : 3
Race 9 : 7
Race 10 : 3
Race 11 : 1 2 3 10
Cost: $4.00 Ticket 4
Race 8 : 3
Race 9 : 12 1
Race 10 : 1 7
Race 11 : 1 2 3 10
Cost: $16.00 Ticket 5
Race 8 : 3
Race 9 : 12 1
Race 10 : 3
Race 11 : 20 13 16
Cost: $6.00
Total Cost of Spread Tickets: $50.00 or $25 for .50 tickets
BET ON Churchill!
Up to 5% back on your bets
Future and prop betting
Fast Signups and Deposits
80 plus tracks including Gulfstream Park
Open an Account and get a 10% bonus
Bet on the Kentucky Derby!
Experience the thrill of horse racing at the Bodog Racebook! With payouts up to $50,000, you can bet on races at over 80 tracks worldwide. It's easy and exciting!
Get up to 5% cash back on your bets
Receive a 10% cash bonus on your initial deposit of $20 or more
Get your bonus now click here
Great Race
Good Race
Decent Race
Weak Race
Bad Race
CHURCHILL DOWNS
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Jump to race: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13
1st (Post time 10:30)
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance Optional Claiming ($100,000) | Purse: $52,500
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Rock Hard Mena M Barnett Bobby C 118 LA 6-1
2 2 Kettle River Nakatani C S Harty Eoin 118 LA 3-1
3 3 Vow to Wager Bejarano R Romans Dale 118 LA 4-1
4 4 Broken Tango Garcia M Baffert Bob 120 LA 4-1
5 5 The Peloton Lezcano J Ryan Derek S 120 LA 8-1
6 6 Stay Put Theriot H J II Margolis Steve 118 LA 2-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Battagliaspicks 6-4-3
#6 Stay Put- trainer is having a huge year winning with 32% of his runners. He sent this colt to work twice on a muddy track and he shows winning over a wet track at FG. He is coming off two strong runs in grade III's and has the edge on class.
2nd (11:00)
1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $48,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Bad Brad Straight M Bryant Donald L 118 L 20-1
2 2 Bold Victory Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 118 LA 7-2
3 3 Zimmer Borel C H Byrne Patrick B 125 Blk-On L 7-2
4 4 Spicer Leparoux J R Nafzger Carl A 118 L 3-1
5 5 Mo'millions Creed B Stevens Lowell T 113 5 LA 20-1
6 6 L. C. Daytona Dominguez R A Maker Michael J 118 12-1
7 7 My Piano Man Graham J Nicks Ralph E 118 L 10-1
8 8 Henceforth Albarado R J Stewart Dallas 118 Blk-On L 5-1
9 9 Sneaky Dreams Farina T Hall Will 125 L 20-1
10 10 Win It Gonzalez S Jr Jackson Helmut S 118 LA 50-1
11 11 Raphael Alexandro Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 118 LA 6-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Battagliaspicks 4-8-3
#4 Spicer- Runs for two time Derby winning trainer and is coming off a strong tune up sprinting at KEE. He has a fast work here in the mud and should blow by these at this longer distance.
3rd (11:30)
1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $48,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Dyani Lanerie C J Kenneally Eddie 125 LA 9-2
2 2 C. S. Royce Gomez G K Romans Dale 118 LA 4-1
3 3 Dandyna Nakatani C S Howard Neil J 118 L 20-1
4 4 Circleboundbay Albarado R J McPeek Kenneth G 118 LA 6-1
5 5 Lemonappeal Maragh R Pitts Helen 118 LA 15-1
6 6 Wicked Ravnina Dominguez R A Maker Michael J 118 LA 12-1
7 7 Heart Union Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 118 L 8-1
8 8 Arrowcourse Borel C H Wilkes Ian R 118 L 15-1
9 9 Poplar Girl Torres F C Tomlinson Michael A 125 LA 20-1
10 10 Kathern's Kitten Lezcano J Brown Chad C 118 LA 15-1
11 11 Sheryl's Melody Desormeaux K J Stewart Dallas 118 L 10-1
12 12 Beyond Our Reach (IRE) Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 125 LA 7-2
13 AE Stormy Tess Borel C H Million William N 118 A 30-1
14 AE Flirty Girty Theriot H J II Nicks Ralph E 118 L 10-1
15 AE Go Button Hernandez B J Jr Pitts Helen 118 L 20-1
16 AE Too Divine Court J K Fires William H 125 LA 15-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Battagliaspicks 2-7-9
#2 C. C. Royce- finished second on the dirt here and on the turf. She is coming off a good effort at GP and Gomez is out ridding them all.
4th (12:04)
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Allowance Optional Claiming ($75,000) | Purse: $50,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Flatter Than Me Hernandez B J Jr Scherer Merrill R 118 LA 8-1
2 2 New Pais Desormeaux K J McCauley Tevis Q 122 LA 5-1
3 3 Havelock Bejarano R Miller Darrin 118 LA 10-1
4 4 Bravo Whiskey Albarado R J Howard Neil J 118 L 15-1
5 5 Good Lord Allen R D Jr Kaelin Forrest 118 L 5-1
6 6 Via Verde Talamo J Sadler John W 118 LA 7-2
7 7 Spooky's Ready Borel C H Borel Cecil P 118 LA 8-1
8 8 Macjoey Nakatani C S Asmussen Steven M 122 LA 10-1
9 9 Don't Put It Back Sterling L J Jr Foley Vickie L 118 $75,000 LA 6-1
10 10 Nateman Graham J Werner Ronny 118 LA 30-1
11 11 Wise Dan Leparoux J R Lopresti Charles 118 LA 9-2
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Battagliaspicks 5-2-1
#5 Good Lord- Very good field of well matched sprinters. This trainer has always been underrated but we have never seen him lose a bet. He has a good work, has two wins to the others one, won here in NOV on a deep muddy track and looks like the one to beat.
5th (12:38)
1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance Optional Claiming ($80,000) | Purse: $55,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Southern Exchange Leparoux J R Dutrow, Jr. R E 121 L 15-1
2 2 Utterly Cool Albarado R J Thornbury Jeffrey D 121 L 6-1
3 3 Rogue Victory Desormeaux K J Weaver George 121 LA 4-1
4 4 Hymn Book Castellano J J McGaughey III C R 121 L 3-1
5 5 On My Dime Mena M Dollase Wallace 121 $80,000 LA 15-1
6 6 Cherokee Triangle Dominguez R A Maker Michael J 121 $80,000 LA 15-1
7 7 Caberneigh Gomez G K Proctor Thomas F 121 LA 12-1
8 8 Gentleman Chester Graham J Nicks Ralph E 121 LA 15-1
9 9 Mr Maccool Torres F C Ball Katherine 121 LA 30-1
10 10 Silver Mountain Lezcano J Proctor Thomas F 121 LA 5-1
11 11 Pickapocket Bridgmohan S X Margolis Steve 121 $80,000 LA 6-1
12 12 Anarko (CHI) Lanerie C J Seitz Frederick J 121 $80,000 L 12-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Battagliaspicks 2-4-1
#2 Utterly Cool- won his first three starts on the grass by a total of 22 lengths including a big stake. He was off for 13 months, opened up on the lead but tired late in a needed race and was only beaten 2 lengths by a repeat stakes winner. He loves a soft course and will be hard to beat at a good price.
6th (1:19)
Eight Belles S. (G3)
7 1/2 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Buckleupbuttercup Leparoux J R Kenneally Eddie 118 LA 8-1
2 2 Hot Dixie Chick Albarado R J Asmussen Steven M 122 LA 1-1
3 3 Bell's Shoes Borel C H Fires William H 116 LA 6-1
4 4 Decelerator Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 120 LA 7-2
5 5 Sister Resistor Bejarano R Dutrow, Jr. R E 116 L 12-1
6 6 Kantstopdancin Farina T Hall Will 116 L 30-1
7 7 Visavis Bridgmohan S X Margolis Steve 116 LA 4-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Pick 6 (Races 6-11)
Battagliaspicks 2-4-1
#2 Hot Dixie Chick- very fast filly won here by 6 then headed to SAR and won a grade III and a grade I. She stayed in training and began this year with a 6 length score at OP on a wet track. Her works are great and she is the one to beat.
7th (2:08)
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. (G2)
1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Miss Keller (IRE) Castellano J J Attfield Roger L 118 LA 10-1
2 2 Phola Dominguez R A Pletcher Todd A 118 LA 7-2
3 3 Fantasia (GB) Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 118 L 5-1
4 4 Hooh Why Allen R D Jr Hoffman Mark 118 L 8-1
5 5 Tizaqueena Gomez G K Stidham Michael 118 LA 5-2
6 6 Hot Cha Cha Graham J Sims Phillip A 118 LA 3-1
7 7 Diamondrella (GB) Albarado R J Corrigan Jim 118 LA 8-1
8 8 Cure for Sale (ARG) Alvarado J Malek Raja 118 LA 15-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Battagliaspicks 3-5-6
#3 Fantasia (GB)- Classy graded winner in Europe shipped over to join the Sheppard barn and there is no better turf trainer in the US. He missed by a neck after rallying late on a speed favoring track. He will score like a best bet should
8th (2:59)
Humana Distaff S. (G1)
7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $300,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Dr. Zic Desormeaux K J Scott Joan 124 L 9-2
2 2 Warbling Dominguez R A Kenneally Eddie 122 LA 8-1
3 3 Informed Decision Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 124 L 2-1
4 4 Dubai Majesty Theriot H J II Calhoun W. B 118 LA 6-1
5 5 Double Espresso Graham J Amoss Thomas 118 L 30-1
6 6 Pretty Prolific Albarado R J Baker James E 120 LA 20-1
7 7 Cassidys Pride Lezcano J Estevez Manuel A 118 LA 12-1
8 8 Rated Fiesty Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 118 LA 12-1
9 9 Free Flying Soul Smith M E Headley Bruce 118 L 6-1
10 10 Mona de Momma Rosario J Sadler John W 120 LA 6-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) Pick 4 (Races 8-9-10-11) / Daily Double
Battagliaspicks 3-1-4
#3 Informed Decision- won 9 of her last 10 races including this stake here last year. She looked beaten here after being blocked and forced to check but Leparoux got her going again and she got up on the wire. She is as game as they come and these do not look good enough to beat her.
9th (3:52)
Churchill Downs S. (G2)
7 Furlongs | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Munnings Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 7-2
2 2 Country Day Hernandez B J Jr Margolis Steve 118 LA 15-1
3 3 Wall Street Wonder Hill C Terranova, II John P 120 LA 12-1
4 4 Victory Notion McKee J Talley Jeff 118 LA 50-1
5 5 Hamazing Destiny Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 118 LA 20-1
6 6 Hull Bridgmohan S X Romans Dale 118 LA 12-1
7 7 Warrior's Reward Leparoux J R Wilkes Ian R 124 L 4-1
8 8 Ventana Gomez G K Baffert Bob 122 LA 8-1
9 9 Atta Boy Roy Borel C H Lund Valorie 118 LA 20-1
10 10 Cool Coal Man Lezcano J Zito Nicholas P 118 LA 12-1
11 11 Kensei Albarado R J Asmussen Steven M 118 LA 10-1
12 12 Musket Man Dominguez R A Ryan Derek S 118 LA 3-1
13 13 Accredit Garcia Alan Maker Michael J 118 LA 20-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11)
Battagliaspicks 12-1-7
#12 Musket Man- Finished 3rd beaten a nose for second a year ago in the KY Derby to Mine That Bird. He then finished less then 2 lengths behind Rachel in the Preakness. He came back 9 months later and won in near track record time and after another two month break was beaten a nose in the grade I Carter at AQ again just missing the track record. He comes to this race ready for his best and will be hard to beat.
10th (4:46)
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S. (G1)
1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Wise River Borel C H Hanna Clark 117 LA 15-1
2 2 General Quarters Bejarano R McCarthy Thomas R 119 L 8-1
3 3 Court Vision Albarado R J Dutrow, Jr. R E 124 L 9-5
4 4 Pop Tarrt Gonzalez S Jr Deegan Joseph C 117 L 30-1
5 5 Al Khali Desormeaux K J Mott William I 119 LA 8-1
6 6 Battle of Hastings (GB) Dominguez R A Mullins Jeff 119 LA 5-1
7 7 Blues Street Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 121 LA 6-1
8 8 Loup Breton (IRE) Gomez G K Canani Julio C 121 Blk-Off LA 4-1
9 9 Yate's Black Cat Leparoux J R Romans Dale 117 LA 8-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 10-11-12) / Pick 4 (Races 10-11-12-13)
Battagliaspicks 3-7-1
#3 Court Vision- ran 3rd behind Einstein and Cowboy Cal in this same race last year. He finds a much easier field today and should get the money.
11th (6:24)
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1)
1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Lookin At Lucky Gomez G K Baffert Bob 126 Blk-Off LA 3-1
2 2 Ice Box Lezcano J Zito Nicholas P 126 LA 10-1
3 3 Noble's Promise Martinez W McPeek Kenneth G 126 LA 12-1
4 4 Super Saver Borel C H Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 15-1
5 5 Line of David Bejarano R Sadler John W 126 LA 30-1
6 6 Stately Victor Garcia Alan Maker Michael J 126 LA 30-1
7 7 American Lion Flores D R Harty Eoin 126 LA 30-1
8 8 Dean's Kitten Albarado R J Maker Michael J 126 LA 50-1
9 9 Make Music for Me Rosario J Barba Alexis 126 LA 50-1
10 10 Paddy O'Prado Desormeaux K J Romans Dale 126 LA 20-1
11 11 Devil May Care Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 121 Blk-On LA 10-1
12 12 Conveyance Garcia M Baffert Bob 126 LA 12-1
13 13 Jackson Bend Smith M E Zito Nicholas P 126 LA 15-1
14 14 Mission Impazible Maragh R Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 20-1
15 15 Discreetly Mine Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 126 LA 30-1
16 16 Awesome Act Leparoux J R Noseda Jeremy 126 LA 10-1
17 17 Dublin Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 126 LA 12-1
18 18 Backtalk Mena M Amoss Thomas 126 L 50-1
19 19 Homeboykris Dominguez R A Dutrow, Jr. R E 126 L 50-1
20 20 Sidney's Candy Talamo J Sadler John W 126 LA 5-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) / Super Hi-5
Battagliaspicks 1-3-2-10
#1 Lookin at Lucky- We generally hunt for long shots or overlays and Lookin at Lucky closed yesterday at 7-1. He takes the blinkers off, a move we love, especially for the biggest race in the sport and Baffert is one of the sharpest trainers around. Gomez actually swayed our thinking, since coming to KY he has made every body else looks like amateurs. He appears to be on the best horse and we will leave it up to the best rider to find a way from the #1 post to get the job done.
#3 Noble's Promise- Has raced with our top pick in three of his last four races and was beaten a head, 3/4 and a 1/2 a length. He has the highest mud number in the field (463) and the track should be a mess by now. His last race was his worst looking on paper but after watching the tape several times he actually ran a big race. He was slammed at the start and blocked behind horses in the stretch. He will probably be at least twice the price of our top pick and could complete a nice exacta.
12th (7:10)
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance | Purse: $52,500
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 A. U. Miner Desormeaux K J Hanna Clark 122 LA 12-1
2 2 Omniscient Borel C H Asmussen Steven M 120 LA 8-1
3 3 Marquee Event Bridgmohan S X Lovell Michelle 120 LA 6-1
4 4 Devastador Arguello F A Jr Davis Raymond L 120 LA 50-1
5 5 Grand Daddy Lopez J Drury Thomas Jr 120 Blk-On LA 10-1
6 6 Coronet of a Baron Court J K Forster Grant T 120 LA 6-1
7 7 Flying Pegasus Albarado R J Nicks Ralph E 120 LA 6-1
8 8 Handleman Hernandez B J Jr Margolis Steve 120 LA 9-2
9 9 Thunder Jack Mena M Calhoun W. B 116 LA 8-1
10 10 Cape Hatchet Smith M E Woodard Joe 120 LA 20-1
11 11 E Z's Gentleman Garcia M Baffert Bob 122 LA 7-2
12 12 Five Star David Lanerie C J Simms Garry W 116 L 20-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta / Daily Double
Battagliaspicks 8-7-3
#8 Handleman- Fast gelding moves upon a wet track. He will zip to an easy lead and play catch me if you can.
13th (7:40)
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $48,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Thunder Highway Court J K Rogers Eddie 118 LA 30-1
2 2 Irish Emperor Thompson T J Lukas D Wayne 118 LA 15-1
3 3 Moe Man Castellano J J Wilkes Ian R 118 L 4-1
4 4 Easy to Please Me Nakatani C S Hendrickson Lori 118 LA 10-1
5 5 Angus Drive Lanerie C J Forster Grant T 118 L 15-1
6 6 Forest Coast Solis A Hanna Clark 118 LA 20-1
7 7 Imperial Pride Talamo J Hess R B Jr 118 L 9-2
8 8 Deets Albarado R J Stewart Dallas 118 L 8-1
9 9 Scary Good Lezcano J Zito Nicholas P 118 LA 3-1
10 10 Galientos Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 118 LA 5-1
11 11 Royal Paddy Mojica R Jr Crawley Galen L 118 20-1
12 12 Mr Ruff McKee J Farmer - Hubbard J 124 L 30-1
Exacta / Trifecta / $1 min. Superfecta
Battagliaspicks 7-3-6-9
#7 Imperial Pride- Limehouse colt ran well on the SA surface finishing second twice even though he has no breeding for anything other then dirt. He gets his chance today and should payoff.
KENTUCKY DERBY NEWS AND NOTES
Why They Can Win The Kentucky Derby … And Why They Cannot
Lookin At Lucky
Why: No one comes close to the 2-year-old champion's accomplishments: three Grade I victories, with his fastest performance also in his only dirt start (the Rebel).
Why not: Call him Lookin At Unlucky. He's encountered traffic problems in three of his last four races (including his only two losses), and trouble is a tough path to Kentucky Derby victory.
Noble's Promise
Why: If he hadn't kept running into Lookin At Lucky, his record might be as impressive as anyone else in the field. His Arkansas Derby fifth was better than it looks, and he came out with a lung infection.
Why not: A son of the miler Cuvee out of a mare by the top sprinter Clever Trick winning at 1¼ miles? The last horse to win the Derby after being fifth in its last prep was Iron Liege in 1957.
Sidney's Candy
Why: He is a top horse, setting a Del Mar record at 5½ furlongs and winning the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby by 4½ lengths. The racing gods will make it up to 20-year-old jockey Joe Talamo for scratching Derby favorite I Want Revenge on race morning last year.
Why not: No horse has won the Derby in his first dirt start.
Line of David
Why: His Arkansas Derby victory was his first start on dirt and his best performance. Hot trainers winning with their lesser-regarded horse (John Sadler also trains Sidney's Candy) is a good betting angle.
Why not: His wins have all been wire-to-wire, and there's too much speed in this race. His final three-eighths time in the Arkansas Derby suggests he might not want to go another furlong.
Mission Impazible
Why: He is getting good at the right time, as his Louisiana Derby triumph shows. You know that when Todd Pletcher finally wins the Derby, it won't be with the horse everyone expects.
Why not: The Louisiana Derby was his best race to date, and it was a slowly run race.
Ice Box
Why: All the speed will set up his late kick. His Churchill works have been very strong.
Why not: The last horse to win the Derby off a six-week layoff was Needles in 1956.
Stately Victor
Why: His last eighth-mile (11.96) and three-eighths (35.67) in the Blue Grass were the fastest of any horse who will get in the field.
Why not: He's not a dirt horse, and he's owned by Tom and Jack Conway — it's been tough going for Democrats in national races in Kentucky.
Conveyance
Why: He fits the prototype of Derby winners, including good form at 2 and 3. He's a serious horse who has lost only once.
Why not: That loss was in his only start farther than a mile. He is a confirmed front runner and will have lots of company on the lead.
American Lion
Why: He's a dirt horse who won the Illinois Derby when he finally got away from synthetic surfaces.
Why not: He got away with very soft fractions in winning the Illinois Derby on the lead. (Doesn't the Illinois Derby winner always go wire to wire?)
Dublin
Why: He's a Grade I winner trained by a guy (D. Wayne Lukas) who has won the Derby four times, and his rallying third in the Arkansas Derby was very good. He'll benefit from all the speed.
Why not : He might take an early exit off one of the racetrack gaps on the backside.
Super Saver
Why: He's rounding into form off two narrow stakes losses this year, and Churchill is his favorite track. He's bred for the distance. Best yet, he's ridden by Calvin Borel.
Why not: He'll be part of what could be a wicked pace. The last Kentucky Jockey Club winner to wear the roses was Cannonade in 1974. Borel specializes in coming from last in the Derby.
Devil May Care
Why: She showed her true ability in winning the 1 1/8-mile Bonnie Miss in faster time than the Florida Derby.
Why not: She either wins a race or gets beat double-digit lengths. Also, she very well could be in the Oaks.
Discreetly Mine
Why: He's bred for the distance, is consistent and classy and has a lot of seasoning.
Why not: He's also a half-brother to top miler Discreet Cat and doesn't want to go that far.
Dean's Kitten
Why: He's training lights-out at Trackside, his last two races have been the best of his career and he'll love the distance.
Why not: He'd love it a whole lot better on turf. He lost by 33 lengths in his lone dirt start.
Awesome Act
Why: British import ran well last year on grass but really is a dirt horse. His Gotham victory off a four-month layoff with compromised training was huge, and he had an excuse (stumbled at the start) when third in the Wood. All the speed is perfect for his running style.
Why not: His last eighth-mile in the Wood (13.49) was slow. No British or European-based trainer has ever won our Derby.
Paddy O'Prado
Why: He was good enough to break his maiden in a Grade III stakes on turf and finished well when second in the Blue Grass.
Why not: He might be better suited for the Irish Derby.
Homeboykris
Why: He won the Grade I Champagne, historically a proving ground for Derby winners. Trainer Rick Dutrow says he runs well fresh.
Why not: His 63 days since his last race (and that a second place in a mile allowance race) would be one of the longest such gaps for a Derby winner. The Champagne hasn't produced a Derby winner since 1993.
Jackson Bend
Why: He has never been worse than second and has a good stalking style. Jockey Mike Smith knows about winning the Derby on a long shot (50-1 Giacomo).
Why not: He might not get in the race.
Why They Can Win The Kentucky Derby … And Why They Cannot
Lookin At Lucky
Why: No one comes close to the 2-year-old champion's accomplishments: three Grade I victories, with his fastest performance also in his only dirt start (the Rebel).
Why not: Call him Lookin At Unlucky. He's encountered traffic problems in three of his last four races (including his only two losses), and trouble is a tough path to Kentucky Derby victory.
Noble's Promise
Why: If he hadn't kept running into Lookin At Lucky, his record might be as impressive as anyone else in the field. His Arkansas Derby fifth was better than it looks, and he came out with a lung infection.
Why not: A son of the miler Cuvee out of a mare by the top sprinter Clever Trick winning at 1¼ miles? The last horse to win the Derby after being fifth in its last prep was Iron Liege in 1957.
Sidney's Candy
Why: He is a top horse, setting a Del Mar record at 5½ furlongs and winning the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby by 4½ lengths. The racing gods will make it up to 20-year-old jockey Joe Talamo for scratching Derby favorite I Want Revenge on race morning last year.
Why not: No horse has won the Derby in his first dirt start.
Line of David
Why: His Arkansas Derby victory was his first start on dirt and his best performance. Hot trainers winning with their lesser-regarded horse (John Sadler also trains Sidney's Candy) is a good betting angle.
Why not: His wins have all been wire-to-wire, and there's too much speed in this race. His final three-eighths time in the Arkansas Derby suggests he might not want to go another furlong.
Mission Impazible
Why: He is getting good at the right time, as his Louisiana Derby triumph shows. You know that when Todd Pletcher finally wins the Derby, it won't be with the horse everyone expects.
Why not: The Louisiana Derby was his best race to date, and it was a slowly run race.
Ice Box
Why: All the speed will set up his late kick. His Churchill works have been very strong.
Why not: The last horse to win the Derby off a six-week layoff was Needles in 1956.
Stately Victor
Why: His last eighth-mile (11.96) and three-eighths (35.67) in the Blue Grass were the fastest of any horse who will get in the field.
Why not: He's not a dirt horse, and he's owned by Tom and Jack Conway — it's been tough going for Democrats in national races in Kentucky.
Conveyance
Why: He fits the prototype of Derby winners, including good form at 2 and 3. He's a serious horse who has lost only once.
Why not: That loss was in his only start farther than a mile. He is a confirmed front runner and will have lots of company on the lead.
American Lion
Why: He's a dirt horse who won the Illinois Derby when he finally got away from synthetic surfaces.
Why not: He got away with very soft fractions in winning the Illinois Derby on the lead. (Doesn't the Illinois Derby winner always go wire to wire?)
Dublin
Why: He's a Grade I winner trained by a guy (D. Wayne Lukas) who has won the Derby four times, and his rallying third in the Arkansas Derby was very good. He'll benefit from all the speed.
Why not : He might take an early exit off one of the racetrack gaps on the backside.
Super Saver
Why: He's rounding into form off two narrow stakes losses this year, and Churchill is his favorite track. He's bred for the distance. Best yet, he's ridden by Calvin Borel.
Why not: He'll be part of what could be a wicked pace. The last Kentucky Jockey Club winner to wear the roses was Cannonade in 1974. Borel specializes in coming from last in the Derby.
Devil May Care
Why: She showed her true ability in winning the 1 1/8-mile Bonnie Miss in faster time than the Florida Derby.
Why not: She either wins a race or gets beat double-digit lengths. Also, she very well could be in the Oaks.
Discreetly Mine
Why: He's bred for the distance, is consistent and classy and has a lot of seasoning.
Why not: He's also a half-brother to top miler Discreet Cat and doesn't want to go that far.
Dean's Kitten
Why: He's training lights-out at Trackside, his last two races have been the best of his career and he'll love the distance.
Why not: He'd love it a whole lot better on turf. He lost by 33 lengths in his lone dirt start.
Awesome Act
Why: British import ran well last year on grass but really is a dirt horse. His Gotham victory off a four-month layoff with compromised training was huge, and he had an excuse (stumbled at the start) when third in the Wood. All the speed is perfect for his running style.
Why not: His last eighth-mile in the Wood (13.49) was slow. No British or European-based trainer has ever won our Derby.
Paddy O'Prado
Why: He was good enough to break his maiden in a Grade III stakes on turf and finished well when second in the Blue Grass.
Why not: He might be better suited for the Irish Derby.
Homeboykris
Why: He won the Grade I Champagne, historically a proving ground for Derby winners. Trainer Rick Dutrow says he runs well fresh.
Why not: His 63 days since his last race (and that a second place in a mile allowance race) would be one of the longest such gaps for a Derby winner. The Champagne hasn't produced a Derby winner since 1993.
Jackson Bend
Why: He has never been worse than second and has a good stalking style. Jockey Mike Smith knows about winning the Derby on a long shot (50-1 Giacomo).
Why not: He might not get in the race.
KENTUCKY DERBY NEWS AND NOTES
Expect Ice Box, Lookin At Lucky There At The End
By Andrew Beyer
When Eskendereya was sidelined by an injury, Lookin At Lucky justifiably inherited the role as the favorite in the 136th Kentucky Derby.
But He's A Different Kind Of Favorite.
Eskendereya had demolished his rivals in two major prep races; his speed figures indicated he was at least five lengths superior to any of his rivals in this otherwise sub-par field. Lookin At Lucky is an accomplished colt, too. He has won six of eight career starts, and he had valid excuses for both of the losses. He was the 2-year-old champion last season, running exclusively on synthetic surfaces in California. This spring he showed that he is equally effective on dirt when he overcame traffic trouble to win the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
In that race, however, Lookin At Lucky didn't rout his rivals in the manner of Eskendereya. He won the Rebel in a photo finish, earning a moderate Beyer Speed Figure of 98. Taking into account the trouble he encountered, he might have run a couple of points higher. But on the basis of that performance, he has no edge over his opponents in the Derby. Nine other members of the field have recently earned in the 97-to-100 range. Neither Lookin At Lucky nor anybody else in Saturday's 20-horse field possesses a significant advantage in talent.
Unless some horse improves sharply and unexpectedly, as Mine That Bird did last year, the Derby isn't going to be decided because one horse is better than the other 19. The outcome will be determined by the dynamics of the race: who saves ground, who goes wide, who encounters traffic, who has a clean trip -- and, especially, who is helped and hurt by the early pace.
In the Kentucky Derby, more than any other race, pace is often a crucial determinant. When the pace is moderate -- if, say, the first half-mile is run in 47 seconds or thereabouts -- the early leaders often seize a tactical advantage. But every time the first half-mile of the Derby has been run in 45.4 seconds or faster, the pace has taken a destructive toll on all of the early pacesetters. After a 45.38 half-mile in 2005, the leaders collapsed, and the horses running 18-6-11-19 at the four-furlong mark wound up finishing 1-2-3-4, with Giacomo winning at 50 to 1. In 2001, when the pace was 44.86, the three early leaders wound up finishing 13th, 14th and 16th in the field of 17 as Monarchos and other stretch-runners dominated the race.
The composition of the 2010 field appears made to order for a similar pace meltdown. At least three of the entrants -- Conveyance, American Lion and Sidney's Candy -- have the raw speed of stakes-quality sprinters. Of the others, Line of David, Discreetly Mine and Super Saver regularly race on or near the lead in route races. One of the speedsters, Sidney's Candy, is expected to be second choice in the wagering, but he has scored his major victories after getting an uncontested lead on California's synthetic tracks, and a fast-paced dirt race will be a new and difficult experience for him. Even if the speed collapses, there are relatively few credible stretch-running threats in the Derby field. Many of the other contenders -- such as Dublin, Noble's Promise and Jackson Bend -- have rarely passed another horse in the stretch run of a route race.
And some of the come-from-behind runners may not fire their best shots. Stately Victor rallied strongly to win the Blue Grass Stakes over Keeneland's Polytrack, but he beat a weak field and he has never won a race on dirt. The filly Devil May Care bypassed the Kentucky Oaks to run in the Derby, with trainer Todd Pletcher saying she is ideally suited to the 1 1/4 -mile distance. The filly's main claim to fame is a stakes win at Gulfstream Park with an easy trip in a field of six -- a far cry from what she will encounter Saturday. Moreover, she hasn't raced in six weeks and has had only two starts as a 3-year-old, so she may not have the seasoning for this tough test.
There are only two colts I am confident will be accelerating strongly in the Churchill Downs stretch: Lookin At Lucky and Ice Box.
Lookin At Lucky is obvious: He fires every time. He rallied strongly to win the Rebel Stakes; he came from 10th place to lose in a photo finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall. While his speed figures may be unimposing, his consistency and his finishing ability set him apart from most of the others in the field.
Ice Box finished out of the money in the first three races of his career, and didn't win a stakes race until his seventh and most recent start, the Florida Derby. He had a perfect setup that day, sitting in last place while the leaders set a fast pace, then rallying furiously to win by a nose. It would reasonable to view his 20-to-1 upset as a perfect-trip fluke. But 3-year-olds sometimes do improve suddenly in the spring. Trainer Nick Zito says that Ice Box reminds him of another late bloomer, Strike the Gold, who came to life in his final prep race and gave Zito his first Derby win in 1991.
In a field in which it is hard to muster an ironclad conviction, Ice Box offers the best betting value. Based on the assumption that all the speed horses in the Derby will collapse, my play will be an exacta box of Ice Box and Lookin At Lucky.
Expect Ice Box, Lookin At Lucky There At The End
By Andrew Beyer
When Eskendereya was sidelined by an injury, Lookin At Lucky justifiably inherited the role as the favorite in the 136th Kentucky Derby.
But He's A Different Kind Of Favorite.
Eskendereya had demolished his rivals in two major prep races; his speed figures indicated he was at least five lengths superior to any of his rivals in this otherwise sub-par field. Lookin At Lucky is an accomplished colt, too. He has won six of eight career starts, and he had valid excuses for both of the losses. He was the 2-year-old champion last season, running exclusively on synthetic surfaces in California. This spring he showed that he is equally effective on dirt when he overcame traffic trouble to win the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
In that race, however, Lookin At Lucky didn't rout his rivals in the manner of Eskendereya. He won the Rebel in a photo finish, earning a moderate Beyer Speed Figure of 98. Taking into account the trouble he encountered, he might have run a couple of points higher. But on the basis of that performance, he has no edge over his opponents in the Derby. Nine other members of the field have recently earned in the 97-to-100 range. Neither Lookin At Lucky nor anybody else in Saturday's 20-horse field possesses a significant advantage in talent.
Unless some horse improves sharply and unexpectedly, as Mine That Bird did last year, the Derby isn't going to be decided because one horse is better than the other 19. The outcome will be determined by the dynamics of the race: who saves ground, who goes wide, who encounters traffic, who has a clean trip -- and, especially, who is helped and hurt by the early pace.
In the Kentucky Derby, more than any other race, pace is often a crucial determinant. When the pace is moderate -- if, say, the first half-mile is run in 47 seconds or thereabouts -- the early leaders often seize a tactical advantage. But every time the first half-mile of the Derby has been run in 45.4 seconds or faster, the pace has taken a destructive toll on all of the early pacesetters. After a 45.38 half-mile in 2005, the leaders collapsed, and the horses running 18-6-11-19 at the four-furlong mark wound up finishing 1-2-3-4, with Giacomo winning at 50 to 1. In 2001, when the pace was 44.86, the three early leaders wound up finishing 13th, 14th and 16th in the field of 17 as Monarchos and other stretch-runners dominated the race.
The composition of the 2010 field appears made to order for a similar pace meltdown. At least three of the entrants -- Conveyance, American Lion and Sidney's Candy -- have the raw speed of stakes-quality sprinters. Of the others, Line of David, Discreetly Mine and Super Saver regularly race on or near the lead in route races. One of the speedsters, Sidney's Candy, is expected to be second choice in the wagering, but he has scored his major victories after getting an uncontested lead on California's synthetic tracks, and a fast-paced dirt race will be a new and difficult experience for him. Even if the speed collapses, there are relatively few credible stretch-running threats in the Derby field. Many of the other contenders -- such as Dublin, Noble's Promise and Jackson Bend -- have rarely passed another horse in the stretch run of a route race.
And some of the come-from-behind runners may not fire their best shots. Stately Victor rallied strongly to win the Blue Grass Stakes over Keeneland's Polytrack, but he beat a weak field and he has never won a race on dirt. The filly Devil May Care bypassed the Kentucky Oaks to run in the Derby, with trainer Todd Pletcher saying she is ideally suited to the 1 1/4 -mile distance. The filly's main claim to fame is a stakes win at Gulfstream Park with an easy trip in a field of six -- a far cry from what she will encounter Saturday. Moreover, she hasn't raced in six weeks and has had only two starts as a 3-year-old, so she may not have the seasoning for this tough test.
There are only two colts I am confident will be accelerating strongly in the Churchill Downs stretch: Lookin At Lucky and Ice Box.
Lookin At Lucky is obvious: He fires every time. He rallied strongly to win the Rebel Stakes; he came from 10th place to lose in a photo finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall. While his speed figures may be unimposing, his consistency and his finishing ability set him apart from most of the others in the field.
Ice Box finished out of the money in the first three races of his career, and didn't win a stakes race until his seventh and most recent start, the Florida Derby. He had a perfect setup that day, sitting in last place while the leaders set a fast pace, then rallying furiously to win by a nose. It would reasonable to view his 20-to-1 upset as a perfect-trip fluke. But 3-year-olds sometimes do improve suddenly in the spring. Trainer Nick Zito says that Ice Box reminds him of another late bloomer, Strike the Gold, who came to life in his final prep race and gave Zito his first Derby win in 1991.
In a field in which it is hard to muster an ironclad conviction, Ice Box offers the best betting value. Based on the assumption that all the speed horses in the Derby will collapse, my play will be an exacta box of Ice Box and Lookin At Lucky.
KENTUCKY DERBY NEWS AND NOTES
T’storms May Create A Derby Only A Mudder Could Love
By ED FOUNTAINE
NY POST
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — If the weathermen are right, the sun won’t shine bright on my old Kentucky home when they run for the roses tomorrow. With a forecast calling for thunderstorms all day, the 136th Kentucky Derby figures to be run in the slop.
"The wet track throws a monkey wrench into everything," said Ron Anderson, the agent for jockey Garrett Gomez, who rides 3-1 favorite Lookin At Lucky. "That’s going to eliminate a bunch of horses that haven’t trained very well here in the mud."
Anderson, an astute handicapper, has narrowed the 20-horse field down to four possible winners.
"I like my horse the best," he said, noting Lookin At Lucky’s bullet five-furlong breeze in 1:00 4/5 over a muddy strip on Monday. Based on their morning drills in the goo this past week, he tabs Mission Impazible, Paddy O’Prado and the filly Devil May Care as the other contenders.
An off-track is just one piece in the handicapping puzzle. Here are some others:
* Lookin At Lucky from post 1: The way trainer Bob Baffert reacted to drawing inside, you’d think they were making Lookin At Lucky break from behind the starting gate.
Maybe you can’t blame him. In both starts this year, Lucky got stuck in traffic and was tripped up by other horses. Most horses wouldn’t hit the board after the trouble he had, but he recovered both times, winning the Rebel and finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby. That experience should serve him well in tomorrow’s crowded field.
Gomez, asked about the post, said simply, "The shortest way around." The fact is, since Ferdinand (1986) was the last horse to win from post 1 in a 16-horse field, no favorite has broken from the rail, only six went off lower than 10-1, and most were 30-1 or higher. War Admiral (1937), Hill Gail (1952) and Needles (1956) all won from post 1 in fields of 16 or more; and in the 23-horse stampede in 1974, Cannonade won from post 2.
* Will there be a pace meltdown? A speed duel appears likely: 5-1 second choice Sidney’s Candy, who breaks from post 20, won his last three starts gate-to-wire. So did his stablemate, Line of David. Looking At Lucky’s stablemate, Conveyance, set the pace in all five of his starts. Super Saver, Discreetly Mine and American Lion each won stakes leading all the way.
"On paper, everyone can see there’s four or five speed horses in a race, and then there’s no speed," Gomez said. "We’ll just play it by ear."
But except for those rare times when a Spend a Buck, a Go for Gin or a War Emblem shakes loose on the lead, chances are that a few horses will knock each other out on the front end, setting things up for a horse like Mine That Bird, who rallied from dead last over a sloppy track last year.
* Can the filly do it? Devil May Care does not fit the profile of the last two fillies to win the roses, Genuine Risk and Winning Colors, both of which dominated other fillies and already had run well against colts.
But trainer Todd Pletcher’s Rags to Riches in 2007 was the first female to win the Belmont Stakes in 102 years, and as he pointed out, running a filly against males worked last year when Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta beat the boys at the highest levels.
"Devil May Care is really competitive," jockey John Velazquez said. "No matter what horse you put next to her, she wants to be better, and she would gallop out better than the colts when she worked."
Post Staff Selection
Debbie Little: Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver, Make Music for Me
Bill Smith: Jackson Bend, Ice Box, Lookin at Lucky
Chris Shaw: Ice Box, Devil May Care, Mission Impazible
Tim Sullivan: Backtalk, Dublin, Lookin at Lucky
Hondo: Jackson Bend, Devil May Care, Super Saver
T’storms May Create A Derby Only A Mudder Could Love
By ED FOUNTAINE
NY POST
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — If the weathermen are right, the sun won’t shine bright on my old Kentucky home when they run for the roses tomorrow. With a forecast calling for thunderstorms all day, the 136th Kentucky Derby figures to be run in the slop.
"The wet track throws a monkey wrench into everything," said Ron Anderson, the agent for jockey Garrett Gomez, who rides 3-1 favorite Lookin At Lucky. "That’s going to eliminate a bunch of horses that haven’t trained very well here in the mud."
Anderson, an astute handicapper, has narrowed the 20-horse field down to four possible winners.
"I like my horse the best," he said, noting Lookin At Lucky’s bullet five-furlong breeze in 1:00 4/5 over a muddy strip on Monday. Based on their morning drills in the goo this past week, he tabs Mission Impazible, Paddy O’Prado and the filly Devil May Care as the other contenders.
An off-track is just one piece in the handicapping puzzle. Here are some others:
* Lookin At Lucky from post 1: The way trainer Bob Baffert reacted to drawing inside, you’d think they were making Lookin At Lucky break from behind the starting gate.
Maybe you can’t blame him. In both starts this year, Lucky got stuck in traffic and was tripped up by other horses. Most horses wouldn’t hit the board after the trouble he had, but he recovered both times, winning the Rebel and finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby. That experience should serve him well in tomorrow’s crowded field.
Gomez, asked about the post, said simply, "The shortest way around." The fact is, since Ferdinand (1986) was the last horse to win from post 1 in a 16-horse field, no favorite has broken from the rail, only six went off lower than 10-1, and most were 30-1 or higher. War Admiral (1937), Hill Gail (1952) and Needles (1956) all won from post 1 in fields of 16 or more; and in the 23-horse stampede in 1974, Cannonade won from post 2.
* Will there be a pace meltdown? A speed duel appears likely: 5-1 second choice Sidney’s Candy, who breaks from post 20, won his last three starts gate-to-wire. So did his stablemate, Line of David. Looking At Lucky’s stablemate, Conveyance, set the pace in all five of his starts. Super Saver, Discreetly Mine and American Lion each won stakes leading all the way.
"On paper, everyone can see there’s four or five speed horses in a race, and then there’s no speed," Gomez said. "We’ll just play it by ear."
But except for those rare times when a Spend a Buck, a Go for Gin or a War Emblem shakes loose on the lead, chances are that a few horses will knock each other out on the front end, setting things up for a horse like Mine That Bird, who rallied from dead last over a sloppy track last year.
* Can the filly do it? Devil May Care does not fit the profile of the last two fillies to win the roses, Genuine Risk and Winning Colors, both of which dominated other fillies and already had run well against colts.
But trainer Todd Pletcher’s Rags to Riches in 2007 was the first female to win the Belmont Stakes in 102 years, and as he pointed out, running a filly against males worked last year when Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta beat the boys at the highest levels.
"Devil May Care is really competitive," jockey John Velazquez said. "No matter what horse you put next to her, she wants to be better, and she would gallop out better than the colts when she worked."
Post Staff Selection
Debbie Little: Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver, Make Music for Me
Bill Smith: Jackson Bend, Ice Box, Lookin at Lucky
Chris Shaw: Ice Box, Devil May Care, Mission Impazible
Tim Sullivan: Backtalk, Dublin, Lookin at Lucky
Hondo: Jackson Bend, Devil May Care, Super Saver
KENTUCKY DERBY NEWS AND NOTES
Horse-By-Horse Preview and Picks
By Dan Nowak
There is a 70 percent chance for rain-thunderstorms for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs Saturday with the possibility of two inches of rain falling. If it rains it is likely a horse or two will be scratched.
Horses listed in order of post position followed by odds and analysis.
Lookin At Lucky (3-1) – Very unfavorable post, forcing him to either start fast and expend energy to avoid being squeezed back, or drop back at the start and hope he doesn’t get boxed in behind horses.
Ice Box (10-1) – Had a huge four-furlong workout in 46.2 seconds in the mud at Churchill Downs on April 23. Can get the distance but the six-week layoff is a negative and the post position doesn’t help.
Noble’s Promise (12-1) – Horses racing on synthetic surfaces have usually failed on the dirt in the Derby. This horse has done his best racing over synthetics and should struggle in this spot.
Super Saver (15-1) – This is the best mudder of all the horses in this race. If it’s sloppy he could steal the win racing just behind the pace or on the front end.
Line of David (30-1) – Expect him to take the early lead. If he carries his speed like he did in the Arkansas Derby, no one might catch him if the track is sloppy and he isn’t pushed hard in the race.
Stately Victor (30-1) – Possesses a huge late kick that got him a win in the Blue Grass Stakes but he’s done his best racing on turf and synthetic tracks. Mud might help.
American Lion (30-1) – In his only start on dirt he won the Illinois Derby wire-to-wire. The big question is can he get the 1 ¼-mile distance?
Dean’s Kitten (50-1) – Mixed signals here. He has trained well at Churchill Downs but ran a dismal fifth in his only start on a dirt track. Staying away.
Make Music For Me (50-1) – This synthetic surface/turf runner has never run on dirt and he may be better suited for sprints.
Paddy O’Prado (20-1) – Got a red flag here. If it rains as expected, note that he finished seventh in the slop at Churchill Downs in his racing debut.
Devil May Care (10-1) – The lone filly in the race has speed, a solid jockey and has done well in the mud. But she might be in a tough spot here considering she likely wouldn’t have even won against the girls in the Kentucky Oaks.
Conveyance (12-1) – Another horse training well at Churchill Downs but his front-running style indicates a late fade at this distance.
Jackson Bend (15-1) – Has a case of seconditis in 2010 including a pair of second place finishes to one-time Derby favorite Eskendereya who is out with an injury. Needs to be included in the exotics (exacta, trifecta, etc.) with his in-the-money potential.
Mission Impazible (20-1) – Another horse who likes mud but his winning time last time out in the Louisiana Derby was very slow.
Discreetly Mine (30-1) – Never showed a late kick in the Louisiana Derby despite the slow winning time. Potential pace casualty for the frontrunner.
Awesome Act (10-1) – A lot to like here with an impressive workout in the mud at Churchill Downs Tuesday. He has a solid jockey to take advantage of his late-closing kick (see Gotham Stakes). My pick to win.
Dublin (12-1) – At age 2, showed a huge late kick but at age 3 weakened or faded late in his three races. Finished out of the money in his only off-track start. But you can never totally ignore a D. Wayne Lukas-trained horse.
Backtalk (50-1) – Is he this year’s Mine That Bird long shot (50-1) who won the Derby last year? Has two wins at Churchill Downs and two wins over sloppy tracks but has struggled beyond a mile.
Homeboykris (50-1) – The Joe Torre-owned horse has a proven trainer but the nine-week layoff and outside post is not a good combination.
Sidney’s Candy (5-1) – He had a solid workout in the mud at Churchill Downs but has raced primarily on synthetic surfaces. This post will pose a big problem.
Race Day Advice: This race should produce huge payoffs, especially with the rain in the forecast. While most of the horses have at least one item that can compromise their chance for a win, Awesome Act looks solid in every way. He has trained well at Churchill Downs, has a solid jockey in Julian Leparoux and showed a strong late kick in the Gotham Stakes. Ignore his third place in the Wood Memorial where he had a terrible trip.
Picks: 1. Awesome Act, 2. Super Saver, 3. Ice Box and if it does not rain I would drop Super Saver out and replace him with Jackson Bend. My plan is to play several 4-horse or 5-horse trifecta keys with Awesome Act or Super Saver on top with combinations underneath that include Ice Box, Jackson Bend, Sidney’s Candy, American Lion, Mission Impazible and Dublin.
Horse-By-Horse Preview and Picks
By Dan Nowak
There is a 70 percent chance for rain-thunderstorms for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs Saturday with the possibility of two inches of rain falling. If it rains it is likely a horse or two will be scratched.
Horses listed in order of post position followed by odds and analysis.
Lookin At Lucky (3-1) – Very unfavorable post, forcing him to either start fast and expend energy to avoid being squeezed back, or drop back at the start and hope he doesn’t get boxed in behind horses.
Ice Box (10-1) – Had a huge four-furlong workout in 46.2 seconds in the mud at Churchill Downs on April 23. Can get the distance but the six-week layoff is a negative and the post position doesn’t help.
Noble’s Promise (12-1) – Horses racing on synthetic surfaces have usually failed on the dirt in the Derby. This horse has done his best racing over synthetics and should struggle in this spot.
Super Saver (15-1) – This is the best mudder of all the horses in this race. If it’s sloppy he could steal the win racing just behind the pace or on the front end.
Line of David (30-1) – Expect him to take the early lead. If he carries his speed like he did in the Arkansas Derby, no one might catch him if the track is sloppy and he isn’t pushed hard in the race.
Stately Victor (30-1) – Possesses a huge late kick that got him a win in the Blue Grass Stakes but he’s done his best racing on turf and synthetic tracks. Mud might help.
American Lion (30-1) – In his only start on dirt he won the Illinois Derby wire-to-wire. The big question is can he get the 1 ¼-mile distance?
Dean’s Kitten (50-1) – Mixed signals here. He has trained well at Churchill Downs but ran a dismal fifth in his only start on a dirt track. Staying away.
Make Music For Me (50-1) – This synthetic surface/turf runner has never run on dirt and he may be better suited for sprints.
Paddy O’Prado (20-1) – Got a red flag here. If it rains as expected, note that he finished seventh in the slop at Churchill Downs in his racing debut.
Devil May Care (10-1) – The lone filly in the race has speed, a solid jockey and has done well in the mud. But she might be in a tough spot here considering she likely wouldn’t have even won against the girls in the Kentucky Oaks.
Conveyance (12-1) – Another horse training well at Churchill Downs but his front-running style indicates a late fade at this distance.
Jackson Bend (15-1) – Has a case of seconditis in 2010 including a pair of second place finishes to one-time Derby favorite Eskendereya who is out with an injury. Needs to be included in the exotics (exacta, trifecta, etc.) with his in-the-money potential.
Mission Impazible (20-1) – Another horse who likes mud but his winning time last time out in the Louisiana Derby was very slow.
Discreetly Mine (30-1) – Never showed a late kick in the Louisiana Derby despite the slow winning time. Potential pace casualty for the frontrunner.
Awesome Act (10-1) – A lot to like here with an impressive workout in the mud at Churchill Downs Tuesday. He has a solid jockey to take advantage of his late-closing kick (see Gotham Stakes). My pick to win.
Dublin (12-1) – At age 2, showed a huge late kick but at age 3 weakened or faded late in his three races. Finished out of the money in his only off-track start. But you can never totally ignore a D. Wayne Lukas-trained horse.
Backtalk (50-1) – Is he this year’s Mine That Bird long shot (50-1) who won the Derby last year? Has two wins at Churchill Downs and two wins over sloppy tracks but has struggled beyond a mile.
Homeboykris (50-1) – The Joe Torre-owned horse has a proven trainer but the nine-week layoff and outside post is not a good combination.
Sidney’s Candy (5-1) – He had a solid workout in the mud at Churchill Downs but has raced primarily on synthetic surfaces. This post will pose a big problem.
Race Day Advice: This race should produce huge payoffs, especially with the rain in the forecast. While most of the horses have at least one item that can compromise their chance for a win, Awesome Act looks solid in every way. He has trained well at Churchill Downs, has a solid jockey in Julian Leparoux and showed a strong late kick in the Gotham Stakes. Ignore his third place in the Wood Memorial where he had a terrible trip.
Picks: 1. Awesome Act, 2. Super Saver, 3. Ice Box and if it does not rain I would drop Super Saver out and replace him with Jackson Bend. My plan is to play several 4-horse or 5-horse trifecta keys with Awesome Act or Super Saver on top with combinations underneath that include Ice Box, Jackson Bend, Sidney’s Candy, American Lion, Mission Impazible and Dublin.
*****kentucky derby full card*****
First of all a little horse racing betting lesson that I'm sure everyone has heard before. The Kentucky Derby is only one race, and even though everyone likes to have the winner of the Derby to brag all year it still is only one race. It involves having a top horse at the time, a great race by the jockey and huge racing luck in many instances. Some horses just don't take to the Churchill surface and some just don't fire on Derby day. In the last nine years I have gone into the Kentucky Derby with the Pick 6 alive six times and I've only won two of the six times(that was with having 4 or 5 horses live in the race). I was beat by horses that many considered donkeys or jack-asses but none the less they won the Derby. So remember, bet the Derby accordingly as if it's just one race on the betting card. On to the derby card...
Race 1
#6 Stay Put
#3 Vow to Wager
#2 Kettle River
#4 Broken Tango
Race 2
#4 Spicer
#2 Bold Victory
#11 Rapheal Alexandro
#8 Henceforth
Race 3
#2 C.S. Royce
#12 Beyond Our Reach
#4 CircleBoundBay
#11 Sheryl's Melody
Race 4
NO PLAYS!!!
Race 5
#4 Hymm Book (Best Bet)
#2 Utterly Cool
#10 Silver Mountain
#11 PickaPocket
Race 6
#2 Hot Dixie Chick (Best Bet)
#4 Decelerator
#7 Visavis
#3 Bell's Shoes
Race 7
#5 Tizaqueen
#3 Fantasia
#6 Hot Cha Cha
#2 Phola
Race 8
#3 Informed Decision
#2 Warbling
#1 Dr Zic
#4 Dubai Majesty
Race 9
#12 Musket Man (Best Bet)
#1 Munnings
#3 Wall Street Wonder
#8 Ventana
#7 Warrior's Reward
Race 10
#6 Battle of Hastings
#3 Court Vision
#7 Blues Street
#8 Loup Breton
Race 11-Kentucky Derby
#1 Lookin for Lucky
#3 Noble's Promise
#4 Super Saver
#2 Ice Box
#11 Devil May Care
#12 Conveyance
Race 12
#11 EZ's Gentleman
#8 Handleman
#7 Flying Pegasus
#10 Cape Hatchet
Race 13
NO PLAYS!!!!
Good Luck and Good Racing
Bernie
First of all a little horse racing betting lesson that I'm sure everyone has heard before. The Kentucky Derby is only one race, and even though everyone likes to have the winner of the Derby to brag all year it still is only one race. It involves having a top horse at the time, a great race by the jockey and huge racing luck in many instances. Some horses just don't take to the Churchill surface and some just don't fire on Derby day. In the last nine years I have gone into the Kentucky Derby with the Pick 6 alive six times and I've only won two of the six times(that was with having 4 or 5 horses live in the race). I was beat by horses that many considered donkeys or jack-asses but none the less they won the Derby. So remember, bet the Derby accordingly as if it's just one race on the betting card. On to the derby card...
Race 1
#6 Stay Put
#3 Vow to Wager
#2 Kettle River
#4 Broken Tango
Race 2
#4 Spicer
#2 Bold Victory
#11 Rapheal Alexandro
#8 Henceforth
Race 3
#2 C.S. Royce
#12 Beyond Our Reach
#4 CircleBoundBay
#11 Sheryl's Melody
Race 4
NO PLAYS!!!
Race 5
#4 Hymm Book (Best Bet)
#2 Utterly Cool
#10 Silver Mountain
#11 PickaPocket
Race 6
#2 Hot Dixie Chick (Best Bet)
#4 Decelerator
#7 Visavis
#3 Bell's Shoes
Race 7
#5 Tizaqueen
#3 Fantasia
#6 Hot Cha Cha
#2 Phola
Race 8
#3 Informed Decision
#2 Warbling
#1 Dr Zic
#4 Dubai Majesty
Race 9
#12 Musket Man (Best Bet)
#1 Munnings
#3 Wall Street Wonder
#8 Ventana
#7 Warrior's Reward
Race 10
#6 Battle of Hastings
#3 Court Vision
#7 Blues Street
#8 Loup Breton
Race 11-Kentucky Derby
#1 Lookin for Lucky
#3 Noble's Promise
#4 Super Saver
#2 Ice Box
#11 Devil May Care
#12 Conveyance
Race 12
#11 EZ's Gentleman
#8 Handleman
#7 Flying Pegasus
#10 Cape Hatchet
Race 13
NO PLAYS!!!!
Good Luck and Good Racing
Bernie
